General elections in Armenia have led to the win of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party. As per the reports of multiple sources, including the BBC and CNN, the centrist Civil Contract Party — the ruling party — has secured 49.8 percent of the vote in the 2026 general elections and Nikol Pashinyan is going to continue as the Prime Minister, though the party has not got the majority. There are many expectations from the government, which has distanced itself from Russia and has been improving relations with the West over the years, especially since 2023. But the government of Pro-West Nikol Pashinyan will face many challenges in the days ahead.
There are geopolitical, economic and other challenges to Armenia. The divisive pro-West and pro-Russia politics and geopolitical complexities are major challenges that may create major trouble within Armenia and lead to confrontations with Russia. While many, including the government, are pro-West, there are many others, including the opposition, who are pro-Russian. Armenia had close relations with Russia for a long and participated in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). But the lack of Russia’s supposed security guarantee for Armenia, especially during Azerbaijan’s border incursions and the subsequent 2023 military offensive that reclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia’s move for democratic reform and economic diversification and several other reasons are responsible for the government’s growing intention and its efforts to move closer to the West.
Given that the government fails to deal with geopolitical challenges involving the West and Russia, Armenia may face deadly economic consequences too. Armenia has various economic challenges, including structural challenges and poverty (as around one-fourth of its people live below the poverty line), along with police misconduct, restrictions on peaceful assembly, systemic discrimination and the suppression of media freedom. Inept dealing with geopolitical complexities can impact trade, as Armenia has a dependency on Russia for energy, trade, and remittances, and the lives of many. While Armenia’s EU status is still far away, Russia has imposed import bans and threatened it with further economic consequences if it pursues closer ties with the West.
But, hopefully saying, the government has realized the importance of participating in the Eurasian Economic Forum — an annual business event of the Eurasian Economic Union, consisting of five countries, including Russia and Armenia — even if the prime minister has sought re-election to ‘continue the course of rapprochement with the West.’ But how much Armenia can pursue its prosperity without facing consequences and deepening enmity with any one of the groups, especially Russia, will remain challenging in the days ahead, especially amidst economic dependence and security vulnerabilities and conflicts of interest between the West and Russia, both of which view Armenia’s alignment as a zero-sum game.
Measures are needed to aptly and cautiously address post-election geopolitical challenges so that Armenia does not engage in direct conflicts with Russia and can ensure its prosperity. It can be difficult for Armenia, but political maneuvering can be helpful. But the government needs to strengthen its diplomatic capacity to address challenges, including the political standoff with Russia. The implementation of the peace deal, reached with Azerbaijan, is vital. The Pashinyan government also needs to work closely with other parties to prevent any possibility of dangerous fragmentation within society and consider the interests of all in Armenia.
But the Caucasus country needs to ensure its prosperity and address poverty, too. The government needs to reduce extreme poverty further and improve the lives of those who are still living below the national poverty line. For this, it is vital to provide opportunities for economic development and end poverty — along with addressing its high vulnerability to regional instability and trade disruptions. Armenia also needs to provide political freedom, address its coercive actions against the opposition, and ensure freedom of expression.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
