Israel and Hamas may strike a ceasefire deal soon. As per the reports of the BBC and CNN, ceasefire talks have progressed on the Gaza war. A ceasefire agreement has in the meantime been reached in principle and will — probably — be finalized by Israel and Hamas this week. The potential three-stage ceasefire deal that includes the release of Hamas-held hostages (around 90 remaining hostages who were taken by Hamas on October 7, 2023), exchanges of prisoners (around 1000 Palestinian prisoners some of whom are in jail for years) and withdrawal of Israeli forces is a promising and praiseworthy step and will help bring peace. But it remains unclear whether the ceasefire agreement will end the conflict permanently.
Pertinently saying, talks on the three-stage deal, which US President Joe Biden laid out last year to end the Gaza war that has in the meantime killed around 48 thousand and displaced most of the 2.3 million Gazans, have been going on for months mediated by several parties including the United States, Egypt and Qatar. But because of the extant of the enmity between the parties, the distrust of the parties, differences in their goals and several other reasons, it was difficult to be successful in the negotiation of peace and reaching the ceasefire deal between the parties earlier. Though the three-stage ceasefire deal, on which hopes are rising as Israel and Hamas are likely to agree soon and which will be beneficial for both the parties, is the successful outcome of painstaking negotiations, there are still several challenges ahead.
There are disagreements over different issues and various challenges to implementation. Disagreements over several issues including an Israeli-proposed buffer zone along the strip’s eastern and northern borders with Israel and the areas from which Israeli forces would withdraw remain. While Hamas wants the buffer zone to return to the pre-October 7 size of 300-500 meters from the borderline, Israel prefers a 2,000-meter depth. It is also not clearly known whether Israel will agree to pull out of the buffer zone by a certain date or whether its presence will be open-ended, though there is a chance of resolving these concerns before the deal’s finalization and during the negotiation after the first stage.
But diverse disagreements and challenges may make the ceasefire deal less effective — not only in the short run but also in the long run. Steps are thus vital to address the concerns in the three-stage deal and its challenges. Further negotiations need to address the unresolved concerns of the presence of Israeli troops in the buffer zone (which may take several years since the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will take years), possibly increasing the chance of conflicts in the future too. But a permanent solution, without which conflicts are less likely to end permanently, is also desirable and can be negotiated during the negotiation phase or later.
It is desired that the deal be reached. But the implementation of the ceasefire agreement is also vital. Pertinently saying, ceasefires between Israel and Hamas were shaken in the past by skirmishes and eventually broken down. For this, emphasis needs to be given to the terms of the implementation of the potential ceasefire deal. Even a small incident could turn into a major threat to the deal. Thus, the commitment of the parties is vital.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine