The Ukraine war has been going on for more than four years. For sure, the lives of the people of Ukraine have become more normalized now compared to the early days of the war, which started with the full-scale Russian invasion. But attacks and counter-attacks by the parties have been going on with air raid sirens, drone attacks, casualties each day and constant uncertainty. Though some initiatives, especially the US-led much talked about and promising peace efforts,have initially raised hopes for ending the war, the Ukraine peace process has still not advanced much. More importantly, how and when the war will end remains uncertain till the date.
But — hopefully saying — there are several positive developments in the war that are more conducive to a resolution. The warring parties have reached a US-negotiated three-day ceasefire, the first time since the Ukraine war began in 2022, though there are claims of its violations. Moreover, the Russian president said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end soon. These developments on the peace process, which has been initiated in early 2025 by the United States, a close ally of Ukraine in the war, despite its failure so far in its ending, have increased the chance of ending the war, rendered one of the riskiest wars in the globe that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions, at least somewhat.
But there are several reasons that have consistently been hindering and delaying a resolution to the war. The insistence of the parties on their respective positions and the lack of strong political will have led to a difficulty in reaching a peace agreement. Territorial issues between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea and several other regions occupied since 2022, including Donetsk and Luhansk, and European security concerns have been the main challenges to the success of the US-initiated peace process so far. But they are still unaddressed. Furthermore, the US engagement with the Iran-US-Israel war has somewhat contributed to the delay, as it concentrated more on it than on the Ukraine peace process.
But amidst the security concerns, the positive side is that talks on the European security issues may finally take place between the parties, increasing the chance of mitigating security concerns. While Russia is willing to talk on security arrangements of Europe, the European Council President António Costa says there is a possibility for Europe to negotiate with Russia ”at the right moment”. Without their direct talks, it is difficult to reach acceptable terms on this crucial challenge. But — importantly — how much and when their talks will address European security concerns remains uncertain due to the uncertainty of talks and a lack of trust between the two parties.
Even if the chance of ending the war has increased somewhat and the possible time has been indicated to be at the end of 2026, the time of its ending will depend on these crucial issues. But the Ukraine peace process needs to be accelerated and measures are needed to address challenges and disagreements. Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine and between Russia and Europe need to be held earlier to end the war, which has impacted the economy of both parties and destroyed many establishments, by addressing concerns.
Before reaching a final peace resolution, another negotiated ceasefire may be considered in the Ukraine war. But the parties need to reach a ceasefire and continue it until a final peace agreement is reached on the Ukraine war. This will accelerate the Ukraine peace process and help find a resolution to the war earlier — along with saving more lives and reducing further destruction. But the goodwill and commitment of the parties are vital for it.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
