Tensions have increased over the Ukraine war. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, tensions have grown over Ukraine’s attacks of long-range missiles into Russia. Attacks were carried out after the green signal to use long-range missiles from the United States which considers the Kremlin’s allowing North Korean troops to fight against Ukraine as a massive escalation. Moscow has angrily responded to Washington for permission to use long-range missiles by Ukraine, which struggles to hold on to its occupied territory in the Russian Kursk region, and warned for an appropriate response if they are used against Russia. Tensions have also increased for loosening the conditions of use for Russia’s nuclear weapons.
The Ukraine war has by this time turned out to be complicated because of various reasons including many complicated developments, long geopolitical rivalries between Russia and the West and the unwillingness of the parties to reach peace. It is notable that the Ukraine war has been going on for around three years, killing many from both sides. But — though there were several peace initiatives — there have been no effective efforts to end the war and bring peace. Though the Ukraine war is directly between Russia and Ukraine, many other parties especially the countries having sided with Russia including North Korea and Iran have somehow been supporting it while western countries including the United States and the United Kingdom have been supporting Ukraine.
But there are two pertinent aspects: whether the Ukraine war will end and, if it ends, whether it will be resolved on reasonable grounds. The chance of ending the Ukraine war may be less under the Biden administration of the United States, which has been the main backer and provider of major arms supplies to Ukraine since the very beginning of the war and further increase in tensions may not be surprising at all in the coming days or weeks. But the end of the Ukraine war is likely in the near future, once the new US administration takes responsibility on January 20, 2025. This was directly and indirectly indicated by the president-elect of the United States and his former advisor.
But it may be difficult to resolve various concerns with the Ukraine war including, but not limited to, territorial occupation — Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014 and four new territories in the ongoing Ukraine war. While Ukraine wants back its territories, Russia repeatedly says that it will not consider peace talks with the former if there are any conditions in the talks on Crimea and newly occupied territories including Kherson. Even if Ukraine finally goes for peace with Russia once the Trump administration is in place, it remains unclear whether there will be any reasonable settlement of various concerns including the territorial problems. These are likely to remain difficult to reasonably solve.
The ending of the Ukraine war is desirable. But given that various concerns with the wars including the loss of territories remain, the chance of lasting peace may remain less, even if the war ends. The resolution of the war by addressing various concerns including territorial occupation on reasonable grounds may help reach lasting peace. For this, putting emphasis on peace talks is vital. But there is no alternative to the good intentions of the parties including Russia.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
