Attacks and counterattacks between India and Pakistan have led a concern. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, India had by this time carried out Operation Sindoor with air strikes on several targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, leading to many deaths, in response to the attacks and deaths in Pahalgam village in India-administered Kashmir. Though Pakistan has not carried out similar strikes in India that suspects the former to be responsible for the Pagalgam attack, it shot down several warplanes and carried out strikes on the areas near the Line of Control and says it will take revenge, increasing the chance of further escalation between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
A full-scale war between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack — which left 25 Indians and one Nepali national dead — will lead to devastating negative outcomes for the parties and beyond. A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, which fought several wars in the past, even if it occurs at a limited scale, would cause hundreds of thousands of deaths of the two parties, along with the displacement of many. The economy of both parties will also be impacted, though impacts may be different. But economic consequences will reach other countries in the South and Southeast Asian region and beyond. Further military escalation, even if it does not lead to a full-scale war, will lead to more deaths between the parties.
Photo credit: https://edition.cnn.com/.
But ongoing attacks and counter-attacks need to be ended early. Third-party mediation is vital and will help de-escalate the conflict. This is crucial as bilateral efforts have little success in preventing wars between the two parties. Moreover, there is a lack of effective bilateral crisis management mechanisms, the lack of intention of the parties at this moment and the ongoing threats and counter-threats. Third-party mediation —pertinently saying — including back-channel diplomacy by countries including the United States, China and Russia, successfully helped in the past to prevent further conflicts between the parties including small-scale military escalations after the 2016 Uri attacks which killed around 20 Indian soldiers and the 2019 Pulwama attacks, which killed more than 40 military police.
But as the possibility of a full-scale war between India and Pakistan from the ongoing escalations following the Pahalgam attack is low because of the economic cost and several other reasons, it may not be difficult to de-escalate the conflict this time too. But among the third parties, the United States, which was one of the most successful mediators in the past and has good relations with both India and Pakistan, and Russia can be more effective in de-escalating the current military escalation between India and Pakistan, two South Asian neighbors. Amongst the others, the role of the United Nations, the United Kingdom and China can also be effective and help de-escalate the present military conflict between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
Photo credit: https://www.npr.org/.
Given the absence of any promising diplomacy, attacks and counterattacks may continue between the two parties in the next several days — even if India’s attacks were focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. But initiatives are needed to end it and reach peace, lest ongoing attacks and counterattacks become out of control. But along with ending the ongoing military escalation, other developments following the Pahalgam attacks including the cancellation of the Indus Treaty need to be addressed. Along with third-party initiative, bilateral efforts will be helpful in addressing the complicated developments. Notably, bilateral efforts helped the parties to reach various treaties in the past including the Indus Water Treaty.
But ending the current military escalation and resolving the complicated developments between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack will not reduce the possibility of such attacks in Kashmir and military escalations in the future. To reduce its chance, the parties need to address disputed and troublesome issues over Kashmir and other aspects including religious issues and rights violations. For this, the two parties need to address various challenges including the lack of political will.
