Tensions have increased between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, leading to concerns. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, India and Pakistan have been exchanging fires at the border for several days following an attack on tourists in an Indian village — near the picturesque town of Pahalgam — in the Himalayan region that led to 26 deaths. India suspects Pakistan for the deadly attack, leading to growing tensions between the parties with fires from both parties along the Line of Control. But Pakistan denies its involvement and says India’s accusations are entirely baseless. However, it remains unclear whether tensions will reduce between India and Pakistan without further escalation.
Diverse reasons may lead to further tensions and deteriorate the situation between India and Pakistan, which have already fought several wars including the 1965 India-Pakistan War and the 1999 Kargil War. Along with the wars, long rivalry, territorial disputes and the previous terrorist attacks of Pakistanis in India have already deteriorated their relations. Moreover, several latest developments including India’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan’s suspension of all bilateral agreements with India and the closure of Pakistani air space to all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines have complicated the situation anew and can increase tensions further. Provided that Pakistan is genuinely responsible for the latest attack, there will be further tensions, with a high possibility of conflicts between the parties.
A pertinent aspect is whether there can be another war between the parties, whose relations have become the lowest after the attack. Though the parties seem tough on their positions and there is heated political rhetoric about doing everything, a full-scale war is less likely. Various reasons including the financial costs of wars, the possibility of nuclear escalation and potential harms to both parties including the loss of many lives may put barriers to a full-scale war this time. But — to say the least —tensions will grow further between the South Asian neighbors, with a possibility of small-scale war or major border skirmishes depending on the involvement of Pakistan in the attack.
Photo credit: https://edition.cnn.com/.
The positive side is that different international actors have urged for peace. While the United Nations has called the parties to remain calm, the United States and China have urged to refrain from war. But there are various challenges and concerns. There is a lack of trust between the parties and several domestic and geopolitical causes that may hinder de-escalating tensions. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif have warned to do everything possible. But the absence of early peace initiatives will increase the chance of a small-scale war or major skirmishes at the Line of Control, similar to the 2019 border skirmishes.
Such sort of attacks are undesired. Attackers need to be brought to justice. Positively saying, Indian police have by this time arrested several attackers they suspect to be responsible for carrying out the attack. But it is yet to make any confirmation on the genuine attackers. Investigations need to be carried out fairly so that the genuine culprits behind the heinous attacks are identified and no innocent become the victims. If needed, a third-party investigation can be carried out and may be helpful in identifying the genuine attackers — more acceptably.
Growing tensions need to be reduced before they lead to another war over the attack in Kashmir, a flashpoint of conflicts between India and Pakistan for decades. Direct talks at the leadership level of the neighbors may be helpful. International actors may play a vital role and reduce growing tensions between the parties. But the early initiative of international actors can prevent the chance of small-scale war between the parties.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
