The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has increased tensions involving several countries including Israel, Lebanon and Iran. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, Israeli strikes killed the Hezbollah leader and many others and have by this time resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands from Lebanon. In retaliation, Iran carried out missile attacks on Israel. Israel has begun the ground invasion of Lebanon and told to retaliate against Iranian strikes, while Iran warned of further actions if attacked, leading to the possibility of an all-out war. But a pertinent aspect is whether any all-out war involving Israel, Iran and Lebanon will result in the third world war.
It is notable that Russia has very close military, economic and geopolitically strategic relationships with several parties including Syria and Iran, which has provided drones and missiles to the former in the Ukraine war. The defeat of allied parties — given that the United States and some other Western countries get engaged in the all-out war — will reduce the geopolitical space for Russia in the Middle East and affect its geo-economic interests further. Consequently, Russia will probably not take any all-out war in the region involving allied countries including Iran and can unsurprisingly get involved, though it is difficult to certainly say of it at this moment because of various reasons including Russia’s facing of various challenges and its heavy toll in the Ukraine war, possibly leading to the third world war, which may also involve its allied parties beyond the region.
Pertinently saying, any full-fledged war involving Israel, Iran and Lebanon can involve several other Arab countries including Turkey, though there is no such indication yet, leading to a larger war in the entire Arab region. Several reasons including possible geopolitical impacts and the religious perception of the war (such as the anti-Muslim war of Israel and the West) may change the silence of many Muslim countries in the region and beyond and may generate anger among them. Notably, different groups can take such an all-out war as an opportunity to designate it as a religion-based war and may be successful. The possibility, consequently, remains for the involvement of other Arab countries, along with the parties affiliated with Iran.
Even if the war involving Israel, Iran and Lebanon does not spread to the entire Arab region and the third world does not occur, the possibility of fully involving Iran’s supported groups in other countries including Iraq and Yemen is high, to say the least. This is due to several reasons including the lack of effective steps to prevent the escalation, which has been almost relentlessly growing for months. While the West supports Israel without effective peace steps, there were no efforts of Russia and China — along with the lack of interest of Israel in ending the wars and reaching peace immediately.
It is desired that steps be taken to prevent the ground invasion of Israel into Lebanon and reduce the chance of further escalation including an all-out war in the region involving Iran, Israel and Lebanon. For this, peace efforts need to be strengthened and ceasefires need to be reached immediately. Peace efforts need to address concerns including the targeted killing of leaders and seek permanent solutions. But the good intentions of the parties are vital for averting further escalation and potential regional war and third world war and reaching peace.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
