The Ukraine war within the Russian territory has been going on for more than two weeks. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, the Ukrainian forces entered Russia’s southern Kursk region in early August after around two and a half years of the Ukraine war, which has by this time killed more than 150000 from both sides. While the latest Ukraine’s incursion, the largest and most significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia since the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022 that led to the occupation of several Ukrainian territories including Donetsk and Kherson may result in a favorable position of Ukraine in peace negotiations, it may lead to adverse outcomes.
It is notable that the possibility of the early peace talks may increase, at least somewhat, that may leverage the release of some of the Ukrainian land occupied by Russia — since its invasion driven by diverse geo-economic and geopolitical reasons — because of the threats to sovereignty, Russia’s potential losses within Russia and in Ukraine and other reasons. Potential civilian deaths, property damages and other outcomes within Russia may put some pressure on the government and create a need within Russia to resolve the Ukraine war with some favorable outcomes for Ukraine in peace negotiations. But such a possibility may not be immediate and easier and depends on how long Ukraine can hold on to captured Russian territories against the Russian military.
The worsening outcomes of the incursion may also not be discarded altogether. Given the extent and unprecedented threats to Russian soil after World War II with the latest Ukrainian incursion, it may not be surprising altogether if Russia ultimately uses the available means including nuclear weapons in its threats-tackling efforts. Positively saying, Russia has not yet talked about the possibility of using nuclear weapons and its plan so far seems to push back Ukrainian troops with the redeployment of its forces. But the Ukrainian capture of the Russian territories and attacks inside Russia may also unsurprisingly create anger among diverse groups within Russia including ordinary Russians, giving a public legitimization for the use of nukes today or tomorrow.
Ukraine, the victim, definitely has the right to self-defense and will probably take further surprising steps, if the solution to the Ukraine war, which has become complicated because of several causes including perceived geoeconomic and geopolitical benefits and losses and the unwillingness of the parties in peace talks, takes time. The absence of peace initiatives and giving the war a chance by both sides to decide its fate has not only complicated it and increased the chance of using nukes in the meantime but also will further increase the chance of using nukes in the future — even if such weapons are not used now. The early ending of the Ukraine war is consequently desired with acceptable solutions.
Given that Russia takes the ultimate path of nuclear attacks to defeat Ukraine, it will lead to enormous negative consequences, which are undesired. While millions of Ukrainians will lose their lives, depending on the use of the types of nuclear weapons, there will be notable impacts for others too. Global efforts to an early ending of the Ukraine war are desirable. Consequently, peace initiatives are also desired. Otherwise, giving the war a chance by both sides to decide the fate of it will probably lead to the use of nukes.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
