Tensions have further increased in the Gaza war. Israeli’s continued attacks, the attacks on Golan Heights and Turkey’s threats of sending troops to Gaza have increased concerns. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, missile attacks in a football playground in Israel-occupied Golan Heights killed twelve children. While Israel blamed Hezbollah for the attack, the latter strongly denied its responsibility. Israel carried out several attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon later. While the Israeli security cabinet has authorized retaliatory military attacks on Hezbollah, Turkey has threatened to send troops to Israel on behalf of the Palestinians, complicating the situation and increasing the chance of further escalation and an all-out war.
It is notable that the possibility of a full-scale war involving Israel, Hezbollah and Turkey cannot be canceled out altogether. Firstly, Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful Iranian-backed militia and political movement in Lebanon that is acting in support of the Palestinians, have been exchanging missiles since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023, leading to dozens of deaths from both sides. Their exchange of fires has already increased largely, along with their repeated threats of a full-scale war. Any major attack or miscalculation by any party can lead to a full-scale war. The possibility of a full-scale war will increase if peace efforts are ineffective — not only between Hamas and Israel but also between Israel and Hezbollah — and the Gaza war continues for a long time.
But, secondly, the possibility of the escalation of the Gaza war cannot also be discarded with the involvement of Turkey, a powerful country and NATO member that has been opposing Israel’s ground invasion since the beginning. Notably, the relationship between the parties deteriorated much by this time. Turkey suspended all trade with Israel over its offensive in Gaza, citing the “worsening humanitarian tragedy” in the strip in May this year. But the chance of Turkey’s involvement is lower than the chance of a full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war, probably because its aim is a solution to the Gaza war. But another rIsrael-Hezbollah war and the continuation of the Gaza war can finally draw Turkey to the war against Israel.
The positive side is that both Israel and Hezbollah are trying to avoid a major confrontation. Western governments have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to Golan Height strikes and clarified their position that no one wants a broader escalation. The United States has been in discussions continuously with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts since the attack on the playing field. Moreover, peace talks have been going on to reach a ceasefire deal in the Gaza war. But there remain various challenges including the lack of sufficiency in peace talks and the lack of support of the parties involved in reaching peace between Israel and Hezbollah and in the Gaza war.
Any full-scale war is undesired — definitely. But further steps are crucial to mitigate tensions and reduce the chance of a full-scale war. Peace talks with Israel and Hezbollah need to be continued. The implementation of the UN Resolution 1701, which was approved to end the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, will be helpful. However, reaching peace in Gaza is also needed to de-escalate tensions in the region and reduce the chance of any full-scale war involving other parties including Turkey. The ongoing peace talks between Israel and Hamas need to be continued.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
