The possibility of the escalation of the Gaza war has increased. According to multiple sources including the BBC, tensions increased between Iran and its supported groups including Houthis in the Middle East and Israel. Several developments including Houthi’s several attacks on goods carrying ships in the Red Sea, Israel’s killing of a high profile Iranian commander in Syria and the growing presence of the US and some other countries in the Red Sea for securing the movement of ships have increased the potential for an escalation of the Gaza war at least somewhat. It may not be unsurprising altogether if the Gaza war further escalates in the region involving several other parties.
It is notable that several factors including the power imbalance between Israel and Arab countries including Iran, a staunch backer of Hezbollah, along with the support of several powerful countries to Israel, intense diplomacy of the United States and the absence of decisive support from Russia to its Arab allies, have probably helped prevent the escalation to a larger war so far. But among the factors, it is probably the nuclear power that makes a significant difference between Israel, the only nuclear power-holding country in the Middle East, and Arab countries including Iran and Turkey — which have immense military capability in conventional war — that has played the most decisive role in preventing a larger escalation thus far, though diplomatic steps have played crucial roles and brought some successes.
But it remains uncertain whether and how much the above factors will prevent the further escalation of the Gaza war. The attacks of Houthis favoring Hamas have in the meantime escalated the war somewhat. Continued escalation in the Red Sea and between Israel and Hezbollah, along with attacks and counterattacks in different areas of the region including Iraq and Syria, may unsurprisingly increase the chance of a large war. But it is the longer Gaza war, as Israel reiterates, along with keeping civilian concerns unaddressed, that will increasingly generate anger among Arab countries and may decisively and significantly increase the chance of bringing several parties including Hezbollah, Houthi and Iran to a full-fledged war in the region.
It is desired that steps be taken to prevent the further escalation of the war. But the continued emphasis on the use of military force is unlikely to bring the desired outcomes — even if there is a power imbalance. The longer Gaza war may also lead to more competition for weapons especially the development of nuclear arsenal in several Arab countries, along with Iran, encourage making a Moscow-Minsk/Washington-Seoul like nuclear treaty in the geo-politically complex region and increase rivalry between Arab countries and Israel, along with different western countries including the US, with a potential for a larger war in the entire region in the near future.
It is desired that steps be taken to find a solution to the Gaza war and end it. Diplomatic steps with the intention of resolving the war are imperative. The emphasis also needs to be given to the solution to the Israel-Palestine crisis, on which Dhaka Opinion Magazine has emphasized in its several publications, with a two-state solution for a lasting peace between Israel and Palestine and in the region. But the role of powerful countries especially the US, which has made many attempts to resolve the crisis, is vital.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
