Tensions have increased in Nagorno-Karabakh with the Azerbaijani armed forces operation called the ”anti-terrorist operation”. According to multiple sources including the BBC, the latest military operation of Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh led to the death of more than twenty including two civilians. But tensions have been increasing in recent months, despite relative peace in the region for years driven by several factors including the blockade of Azerbaijan on the only route into the enclave from Armenia, known as the Lachin Corridor. Hopefully, a ceasefire was immediately agreed between the Azerbaijan and Ethnic Armenians under the mediation of Russia, but it remains unclear whether there will be peace in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Several mediation efforts have been made by the Minsk Group and other parties and agreements have been reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have fought wars against each other in the 1990s and in 2020 — rooted in territorial disputes and ethnic tensions — along with several skirmishes. The 1994 Bishkek Protocol, the provisional deal brokered by Russia and signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh, that aimed to halt hostilities and establish stability in the region, keeping Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent with a self-proclaimed government in Stepanakert, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement that aimed to end the conflict that erupted in September 2020 and establish lasting peace in the region, are crucial agreements that helped reduce conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Despite several ceasefire agreements and international mediation efforts, sporadic clashes and escalations continue to pose a threat to stability driven by several factors. One crucial loophole is the lack of clear and effective mechanisms for resolving disputes and/or enforcing compliance with the agreed-upon terms. Russia, as per the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh peace agreement, has deployed its peace keeping forces to monitor the ceasefire agreement and ensure compliance from both Armenia and Azerbaijan, along with facilitating the return of displaced persons in the region, providing a buffer zone that separates Armenian and Azerbaijani forces and contributing to peace for months in Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has somewhat increased the scope of conflicts in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Additionally — and importantly — the agreements mostly provide ceasefires but do not strongly and adequately address the complexity surrounding the status, governance and ethnic issues of Nagorno-Karabakh, predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians who declared independence from Azerbaijan in the 1990s, along with the return of displaced people, leaving room for conflicts to arise. Among others, differing interpretations of key historical events, the violations of ceasefires, the lack of trust between the conflicting parties and regional and international geo-political issues are notable. Years of hostility and violence have created deep-rooted animosity, making it difficult for both sides to fully commit to the terms of any agreement, maintain stability and prevent further escalation of conflict.
Further efforts are definitely crucial to finding effective solutions to the conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. A comprehensive peace deal that addresses the complex nature of the conflict may help reach a lasting peace in the region. But strong compliance mechanisms and implementing peace agreements including ceasefires are crucial. It is also crucial for the conflicting parties to work towards a more inclusive and effective approach to finally bring about a sustainable peace resolution. Among others, fostering people-to-people exchanges, promoting cultural understanding and encouraging economic cooperation among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh can help build trust and reduce tensions in the region.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
