The latest military coup in Niger — which led to the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum — attracted widespread international condemnation. By this time, according to multiple sources including the BBC, the Economic Community of West African States, consisting of several West African nations including Nigeria, have threatened a possible military intervention to overthrow the military junta and restore the ousted president in Niger. But the Niger Junta rejected the call of the ECOWAS, which imposed sanctions, and expressed its unwillingness to step back, leading to an increased chance of further escalation, along with possible unrest within Niger, dangerous effects in the region and a surge in militant activities.
The chance of further escalation between the Niger junta and its allied parties and the ECOWAS and their allied parties and unrest in Nigeria has definitely increased driven by not only the ECOWAS’s threat of military intervention and the rejection of the Niger junta but also the potential roles of Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali favoring the Niger junta and other factors. While the ECOWAS wants to reinstate the pro-west ousted president, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali declared their support for the pro-Russia junta. The potential role of the Wagner group, the Russian mercenary group, in Niger that is in support of the junta and people’s divided support to the junta and the ousted president, among others, may also make the situation further complicated within Niger and beyond.
But the military intervention will probably bring deadly consequences to Niger and beyond. It may lead to large displacements, along with many deaths. Moreover, any military intervention by the member states of the ECOWAS including Nigeria may take a long time to be successful, given the possible support of several African states including Burkina Faso and the involvement of the Wagner group. But even if there is no military intervention, the current instability can still affect the entire Sahel region, exacerbating existing security challenges and possibly giving rise to new threats both domestically and regionally. Instability may also facilitate some non-state armed groups including the ISWAP and Boko Haram to exploit, leading to escalating levels of violence.
The persistent support of a portion of people for Bazoum can additionally bring the potential for continued unrest, mass demonstrations against the junta and violent contestation among pro-junta and pro-regime camps, adding further layers of uncertainty in Niger (even if there is no military intervention), where there is a lack of strong political institutions that leads to frequent political unrest and power struggles. It is thus desired that the crisis resulting from the latest military coup — driven by several factors including insecurity, economic stagnation, internal politics and ethnic rivalry — is resolved early in a peaceful manner to avoid unrest in Niger and avert further escalation and possibly dangerous consequences in the region.
Efforts definitely need to be strengthened to find and reach a peaceful transition to the political government in Niger earlier. But military intervention is not the desired solution. Negotiation based solution, which is already going on, is definitely preferred for resolving the crisis. The effective diplomatic roles of the West African bloc, along with others, with the junta government may be helpful. But it is also desired that the Niger junta makes the transition to the political government earlier and provides a timeframe for the early transition to the civilian government.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
