Russia has canceled the Grain Deal this week, leading to concern. According to multiple sources including the BBC, Russia canceled the deal — which allowed the export of grains through the Black Sea from Ukraine — citing the blackmail of it by the West and Ukraine, along with several other causes. By this time, Russia has also carried out air attacks on grain storage in Ukraine and warned that it would treat ships heading for Ukrainian ports as potential military targets, though its return to the grain agreement is not canceled altogether. Russia’s strikes on storage had destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain in Ukraine, one of the largest exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley in the world.
It is pertinently notable that prior to the deal, food prices had sharply risen in many countries driven by the Ukraine war. But the deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2021 amidst the war between Russia and Ukraine, allowed cargo ships to pass safely along a corridor in the Black Sea to and from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. The deal, according to the World Food and Agriculture Organization, immediately led to a decline of about 20 percent in food prices in the world. More than half of the grain bought by the World Food Programme in 2022 also came from Ukraine. But the cancellation of the deal, which enabled Ukraine to supply world markets with over 32 million tonnes of food products so far, can bring enormous consequences to global food supplies.
Ukraine being the important exporter of grains, the sudden halt can at least lead to a decrease in the global supply of grains with higher prices and food shortages in several African and Middle Eastern countries — which heavily rely on imports from the Black Sea region. By this time, wheat prices have risen sharply in global markets. But it remains unclear whether the deal will be restored. Russia, according to multiple sources, has raised several concerns that led to the cancellation, though it told that it would restore it if its demands are met. Lifting sanctions on the sales of Russian grain and fertilizer and reconnecting Russia’s agricultural bank to a global payment system is one of the several demands that can probably make the deal’s restoration difficult.
At the time of the war, it is often difficult to maintain any deal that can be used as a war strategy and bring some gains. Given the present condition of the Ukraine war, the cancellation of the grain deal is not surprising. But it is desired that the deal is restored and bombarding grain storage is avoided. But negotiations are crucial to restore the deal. The United Nations, along with Turkey, may be effective in negotiations. The meeting of the concerns of Russia regarding the deal that are considerable may be helpful. Exports through alternative routes including Poland may also be helpful to supply grains from Ukraine, but the current transport infrastructure may put a challenge.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
