The US Secretary of State has recently visited China to mitigate tensions between the United States and China. According to multiple sources including the BBC, Antony Blinken visited China and talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Qin Gang this week. They pledged to stabilize the tense relationship — driven by China-Taiwan tensions in recent months, the spy balloon row and several other causes — between the countries and expressed a willingness to hold more talks. These are definitely good developments, may reduce rising tensions between the United States and China and can bring some other good outcomes, though there are no concrete outcomes of the latest visit, the highest-level US visit to China in five years.
The US-China relationship is the biggest one in the world in economic terms. Both the country has economic relations amounting to around 800 billion US dollars. But the geopolitical relationship worsened in recent years with reciprocal trade sanctions worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Economic sanctions were withdrawn later but there are many other factors that have led to rising tension in recent months. China’s reaction to the visit of the former US House Speaker to Taiwan and China-Taiwan tensions, driven by China’s repeated threat of the use of military means against Taiwan, China’s military drills near Taiwan and several other causes, are definitely crucial causes of the recent rise in tension between China and the US, which has close relations and is in favor of Taiwan.
Amidst the rising tension between the country, the recent talks and interest in destabilizing tensions will bring some positive outcomes. Firstly, along with the reduction of tensions between the countries, the latest development between the countries may help reduce the chance of any military war between the country. Secondly, it may help reduce tensions between China and Taiwan. But it remains unclear whether their intention to de-escalate tensions will reduce the chance of any Chinese military invasion of Taiwan. Thirdly, it may help reduce tensions in the region somewhat relieving Japan and South Korea. Notably, the rising military presence of China in the region has led to growing tension among several countries in the Asia-pacific region including Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
But geo-economic, geopolitical and other factors may be decisive in the coming days. The geo-economic and geopolitical goals of China and the China containment policy of the United States — as is often criticized by China — are definitely crucial factors. According to multiple sources, China disagreed with the US on trade and human rights in China and Hong Kong in their talks. The political systems of both countries are also a crucial hindrance. Since China puts emphasis on state control, conflicts over human rights issues (including the rights of Uyghurs), censorship and freedom of expression may deteriorate their relations. Yet, the possibility of stabilizing the relationship between China and the US somewhat exists for economic benefits and other causes.
But it remains unclear whether there will be significant outcomes regarding the reduction of tension between Taiwan and regional peace, rendered major concerns of the United States. It is notable that Beijing has made it clear that Taiwan is at its “core” interest and that there are “many issues on which we profoundly, even vehemently , disagree”. China also disagreed on Chinese military assertiveness in the South China Sea, which often creates tensions between China and several countries including the Philippines, with the United States in their latest talks indicating that destabilizing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region will be challenging. Yet, the stabilization of tensions between the powerful countries can help reduce China-Taiwan tensions at least somewhat.
Given that there are chances of reducing tensions between the countries, further efforts are imperative to improve their relationship. But it is definitely desired that both China and the US refrain from any military war in the region. For this, both the country, which vie for global dominance in key industries such as technology, trade and manufacturing, needs to keep the option for talks between them. But emphasis may be given to the tension between Taiwan and China and regional peace and stability, rendered crucial for the region and beyond. It is also desired that China averts a military invasion of Taiwan. A responsible act of China is definitely imperative for this.
