The Ukraine war has been going on for around fifteen months since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Along with Ukraine, the whole world including the Russian Federation, the United States and European countries has already counted the impacts of the war. But the global mediation effort has not advanced much to end the uncertain war, despite its importance. Given that there is no strengthened mediation effort amidst the continuation of the war the way it is going on with the direct and indirect involvement of powerful countries, it can be lengthened and may increase the possibility of a larger-scale war today or tomorrow — probably with nuclear bombs — and unprecedented devastating impacts on the world.
But, hopefully, mediation efforts to end the war are in place. Notably, China proposed a twelve-point proposal to resolve the war that has raised hope at least somewhat. China’s peace proposal has generated some interest from all parties in the war, though it was heavily criticized by the West probably because of not only China’s Russia favored stance during the war but also the inclusion of some points including ‘abandoning the cold war mentality’ and geopolitical competition between China and the West. By this time, China has met with the Russian president on its proposed peace plan and talked to the Ukraine president over the phone. But there is neither any strong effort from China nor any convincing outcome of its mediation effort yet.
Despite the criticism of the proposed peace plan, there is a possibility of ending the war with Chinese mediation because of several factors. Firstly, China has strong relations with Russia in terms of not only economic but also strategic and, clearly, is more important to Russia at this moment. Given that China is earnest, it may convince Russia to come to discussion tables with Ukraine and reach an acceptable solution to the Ukraine war. Secondly, China has no conflicting relations with Ukraine, despite its Russia favored stance. Thirdly, the West has not discarded China completely as a peace mediator. Consequently, its mediation efforts have a chance to end the Ukraine war, though its mediation has yet to achieve any notable outcome.
Even if the Chinese mediation effort fails to completely end the war, it still may bring some crucial outcomes by facilitating direct talks between/among the parties that may help to end the war. But how much the Chinese mediation based on its peace proposal will be successful in ending the war remains unclear. Its peace proposal has — as noted above — already received wide criticism among western countries, though some points including ‘resuming peace talks’ and ‘reducing strategic risks’ are appreciated by many. More importantly, it is difficult to find a solution without holding direct talks between/among the parties. But no party seems willing to hold talks at this moment rather they are probably willing to give the war a chance of its ending.
Given the gravity of the Ukraine war, it is difficult for any country including China to successfully mediate it, even if the mediator is earnest. China’s rivalry with the United States and its possible confrontation with the US in the future over Taiwan, along with other causes including their differing geopolitical goals, may also make it difficult for China to play the desirable role in peace mediation. But China’s strengthened mediation efforts are desired in resolving the war and it is important for China to bring the parties to the discussion table to increase the possibility of its solution earlier. But instead of sticking to its proposed terms, Chinese mediation aiming to bring the parties to discussion tables may be helpful.
Given that Chinese efforts remain at a stalemate and do not help resolve the Ukraine war, mediation efforts of other countries are desired. Among other potential mediating countries, Turkey or India may be effective in ending the war. Notably, Turkey, along with the United Nations, has mediated the Grain Deal and India has good relations with Russia and the United States. The South Asian country has also not directly gone against Ukraine in the war. But the resolution of the war largely depends on the intention of all the parties, rather than on mere mediation efforts. It is desired that all the parties reflect a good intention to end the war somewhere.
