The armed conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Force — the Sudanese paramilitary force — has been continuing for more than two weeks, leaving more than five hundred deaths and several thousand displacements. According to multiple sources including the BBC, a three-day ceasefire deal was reached between the conflicting parties with the diplomatic efforts of the United Nations and several regional and other countries including the US and UK and it was renewed but the fighting is continuing by breaking the ceasefire deal. There is no signal of ending the conflict immediately. Also, the citizens of other countries are being evacuated by their respective countries but they are facing troubles due to the continued fighting in Khartoum.
The armed conflict, if it is not stopped immediately, can unsurprisingly lead to a larger-scale civil war. It is pertinently notable that there are backers of both conflicting parties. While Egypt is thought to be supportive of the Sudanese army, the United Arab Emirates and several other parties are supportive of the RSF. Also, the supporters of former president Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted from power by the army in 2019 after mass protests, and his National Congress Party may join the armed conflict as they have angers against the 2019 coup. There are several armed ethnic militia groups, which emerged during the thirty-year regime of Omar al-Bashir, that may also join the conflict and make it a full-fledged civil war. Given that the conflict escalates with the involvement of other parties within and outside the country, it can be a very complex civil war, even if Sudan does not turn into another Yemen.
Definitely, the ceasefire deal agreed upon by the fighting parties was rendered a positive development that increased the possibility of ending the conflict and created the space for the evacuations of foreigners including diplomats from Sudan. Although another extension of the ceasefire is probable, the agreed ceasefire deal is not maintained by the parties. Notably, many foreigners are still stuck in Sudan — even if many were evacuated — and struggling to get to the airstrip used for evacuations because of the continued fighting. More importantly, several attacks were carried out on foreigners during their evacuations. A Turkish military evacuation plane was shot and a convoy of French nationals was attacked. Also, many locals are being attacked and facing trouble in going to safe places.
It is desired that steps are taken to end the conflict immediately, lest it becomes too late and turns out to be a full-fledged civil war in Sudan, which is in a volatile region bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa. Also, foreigners need to be given the scope of leaving Sudan safely. For this, the conflicting parties need to be earnest. But to end the armed conflict immediately, an effective ceasefire and continued peace talks are crucial. Since the conflicting parties are unlikely to solve their problems and end the conflict on their own, regional and global powers including Ethiopia also need to help reach an effective ceasefire and its solution.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
