Violence is going on for several days across Sudan as fighting between rival armed factions continues to spread, leading to a growing concern. According to multiple sources including the BBC, fierce violence between the Armed Forces of Sudan (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — a paramilitary group — erupted in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, a few days ago. The armed clash has in the meantime led to more than 200 deaths, more than 1,500 injuries and fear and panic among citizens. Despite repeated calls from several Arab States and other countries including the United States for a permanent end to the armed violence, there is no sign of its ending.
Notably, the fighting reflects a power struggle within the military leadership that started after the military coup in 2021, which ended a transitional government put in place after the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and resulted in the formation of a new governing Sovereign Council led by the heads of the SAF and the RSF. The power struggle between the Sudanese Army and the RSF has led to some complicated developments and escalated into violence in the African country, which has been going through numerous coups and periods of civil strife since its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom, though tensions rapidly increased after the RSF’s deployment of its members in Khartoum and other cities without the SAF’s permission.
There are definitely several disputed grounds. But the main disputed ground is the disagreement over how the RSF paramilitaries can be incorporated into the Sudanese army. This has led to mounting tensions between the armed parties since some factions within the military are resistant to incorporating the less professional RSF into the professional SAF. Also, there is a struggle to control Sudan’s economic assets including gold mines by the parties. Along with these, a lack of intention of the conflicting leaders, Abdel-Fattah Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, to relinquish the power and hold elections — among others — may put challenges to ending the violence and resolving the crisis in Sudan, rendered a failed African country, with a civilian government.
The conflict, which may result in a civil war and go beyond the army chief and the RSF leader, may make the transition to a civilian government difficult and lengthy, impact neighboring countries including Ethiopia, which is reeling from a two-year conflict in the Tigray region, and South Sudan and, though less likely, destabilize the conflict-prone region, if it is not immediately resolved. According to the CSIS, an estimated 15.8 million in Sudan required humanitarian assistance before the onset of the conflict but the number may also grow as clashes continue. It is consequently desired that the conflict is ended with a ceasefire and that the situation turns out to be peaceful.
But the causes of the armed violence need to be addressed. The security reform needs to be completed with negotiations. Also, the civilian government is desired with a credible election — supposed to be held in 2023 — at the earliest possible time. The transition to a civilian government may help to make the country stable. But the Sudanese military and the RSF need to be earnest in resolving disputes between them and holding elections. Also, regional and global efforts are imperative to end the armed conflict and hold timely elections in Sudan.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
