Saudi Arabia and Iran are going to restore diplomatic relations. According to several sources including the BBC, the two countries will reopen embassies within two months and re-establish trade and security relations. Such a decision made by the representatives of the two countries in Beijing — mediated by Chinese officials —came as a surprise at least a bit since it came after seven years of severing their ties in a bitter row over the Saudi’s execution of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric leading to demonstrators’ storming in its embassy in Tehran. The renewed diplomatic relations of the geopolitical competitors in the Middle East may have impacts on the entire region, though it remains unclear whether its impacts will be major or not.
The renewed relations between the two Arab countries have the potential to reduce tension in several Middle East countries. Notably, both countries have been in geo-political competition for several decades and proxy wars in several Middle East countries including Syria, Lebanon and Yemen for regional dominance. But one of the most rival engagements is the proxy war in Yemen, a country which has been in civil war for more than a decade, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions of people, along with devastating economic and other impacts. While Saudi Arabia was involved in the civil war in 2015 by backing the exiled Hadi government of Yemen, Iran is backing the Houthi rebels, who seized the capital Sana in 2014.
The renewed diplomatic relations between the Shia-majority Iran and Sunni -majority Saudi Arabia, rendered by many a new horizon in the Middle East with the potential of securing stability in the region, can help to end the conflict in Yemen as these countries are the main backers of the civil war, given that they are earnest and make efforts to end hostilities in Yemen. But it still remains unclear whether the renewed diplomatic ties will lead these Arab countries to end their proxy war in Yemen. The intention to dominate the region — among several causes — may put a hindrance to ending hostilities between the decades-long geopolitical rivals and making earnest efforts to end the Yemeni civil war, though its chance remains.
It is, moreover, not convincingly clear that the effort of, or the agreement on ending the Yemeni war between, Iran and Saudi, even if it is made, will immediately end the Yemeni civil war. Notably, according to several sources including the ALARABIA News, Abdulwahab al-Mahbashi, a spokesman of the Houthi, has immediately reacted by saying that the normalization agreement of Saudi Arabia with Iran will have no impact on the Yemen war because the Houthis are not “subordinate” to Tehran. But because of Iran’s strong relations with and support to the Houthi, its earnest role, along with that of Saudi Arabia that formed the Arab Coalition against the Houthi, will definitely help to reach acceptable political solutions between the conflicting parties in Yemen.
It is desired that the Yemeni civil war is ended not only for better outcomes in economic, political, social and other areas in Yemen but also for peace and stability in the entire Middle East. In this respect, the role of Saudi Arabia and Iran—compared to any other parties within and outside the region — will definitely be more effective. But these countries need to make efforts to end their hostilities in the Middle East countries especially in Yemen and solve the crisis. The efforts of other parties including China are imperative to hold talks between these countries directly on ending the civil war. But both countries need to be earnest in helping to end the civil war.
But the solution to the Yemen crisis needs to be directly sought with political negotiations between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels. In this respect, holding talks between the conflicting parties of Yemen is definitely crucial. A strong role of both Iran and Saudi Arabia is imperative to compel the conflicting parties to hold direct talks, end hostilities and reach solutions. But both parties also need to be earnest to find and reach political solutions, no matter whether acceptable solutions require the formation of a unity government with the responsibility of holding elections in the country or any other political solutions, to the Yemeni civil war.
