Iran protests have been going on for weeks. Notably, the protest started after the death of a woman in custody. Initial protests have turned out to be massive protests against the regime and become the most significant protests in recent decades that have already killed more than two hundred and fifty protesters. Though the protest, which has already questioned the legitimacy of the Iranian regime, started against the killing of Mahsa Amini with the demands for women’s freedom, bodily autonomy and optional hijab, the protesters later expressed anger over living conditions, widespread corruption and economic mismanagement. By this time, many have indicated the possibility of its impacts in the entire Middle East.
The protests can possibly impact the entire Middle East on several grounds including geopolitics and women’s freedom. Geopolitical impacts may be significant. Currently, Iran is directly or indirectly at the war in several Arab countries including Yemen and Syria. Its shaken position at home can compel it to reduce its support to Syria and Yemen. Moreover, there is a possibility of reducing funds to Hezbollah, a non-state armed group that is more active in Lebanon though it operates in some other Middle East countries. There is also a chance of the reduction of the influence of Iran, which is undergoing economic challenges due to rising inflation, reduced currency reserves, export reduction, substantial trade deficit and sanctions, in the regional geopolitics because of potential anger among some Shia communities.
But such possibilities are more likely to remain mere possibilities because these depend on several aspects including the length of the protest and its success, the extent of the vulnerability of the regime caused by the protest and global geopolitical developments. No doubt, Iran has taken hard-line efforts to end the protest. Notably, Iran successfully prevented the election-based protest movement in 2009 with drastic anti-protest actions by security forces. Moreover, the protesters are not well-organized and there is a lack of anti-government forces capable of fighting the regime based on the protest movement. Consequently, the Arab Spring, which started in 2011 and was successful in some Middle East and North African counties including Egypt where Hosni Mubarak was overthrown, will probably fail to significantly impact the Iranian government.
Moreover, global politics and geopolitical groupings may be decisive factors especially in the reduction of Iran’s influence in the Middle East and the increased chance of its rivals to exert increased influence. Notably, Iran has, according to available sources, supplied its ‘Shahed Drone’ to Russia has close relationship with the latter. Russia’s support may make Iran capable of withstanding some geopolitical threats and maintaining its position in the Middle East especially against Israel, which supplied arms to Ukraine and increased its links in the Middle East with the recently signed bilateral pacts including the Abraham Accords with the UAE and the Maritime Border Deal with Lebanon. Moreover, the relationship deteriorated between the USA and Saudi Arabia because of Saudi’s reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war. Thus, the possibility of significant gains by the rivals of Iran is less likely, though Iran’s influence is likely to reduce at least somewhat.
The impacts of the protests on women’s rights in the entire Middle East may not be remarkable. Indeed, the Middle East is widely rendered as conservative and mainly run by the Islamic laws. But situations have recently changed partly because there is an increase in the number of western educated women and increased influence of the western culture among young men and women and partly because some reformations regarding women’s rights were made in several countries including Saudi Arabia. Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman provided more freedom to women in several aspects including driving permission and women’s mobility. Thus, the present Iran protests can give more voices to women regarding their rights in other Middle East countries, although drastic changes are unlikely in the region.
To prevent potential adverse impacts on its regional influence, it is likely that Iran will continue to exert force on protesters to control the protests at the soonest possible time. Thus, torture and deaths are also likely in the days ahead. But it is desired that the Iranian authority talks with protesters, instead of torture and killing, and considers those demands that are reasonable. No less important is that any major geopolitical destabilization in the entire Middle East based on the Iran protest is undesirable at this moment because of the ongoing Russia -Ukraine war that has already affected the entire world in economic and other terms enormously.
