Russia-Ukraine war: is it heading to a nuclear war?

The Russia-Ukraine war has already reached its seventh day. By this time, many soldiers and civilians were killed and more than half a million Ukrainians have fled their homes. An unconditional discussion held between delegates of Russia and Ukraine at the border between Belarus and Ukraine ended without any achievements. As is further known, Western countries imposed severe sanctions on Russia and Russia also imposed sanctions on Western countries in retaliation. Even if the western counties have not sent their military forces to fight against Russia in Ukraine, they are sending military weapons to Ukraine. More importantly, Russia ordered its nuclear deterrence force to remain on high alert. Thus, a concern relevantly remains on whether there can be a nuclear war.

It is notable here that Russia attacked Ukraine for many direct and indirect reasons. But the most important direct reason seems to be the possibility of Ukraine’s joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the invasion, Russia has made it clear that it will not accept Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. This is because it will lead to the presence of NATO forces near the border of Russia which it perceives as a significant security threat. But it is the newly imposed unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia that have the potential to make significant and lasting damages to Russia in economic and some other terms that can probably increase the chance of using nuclear weapons at least to some extent. Already, Russia had referred to economic sanctions as a reason for its order to keep the nuclear deterrence force on high alert.

Of course, there are several historical, geopolitical and other reasons including Russia’s undigested stance to the Soviet collapse that can indirectly influence to decide for nuclear attacks. Notably, rival relations between Russia and the West are not new. The fierce competition of power was there for a long. Although the end of the cold war reduced such competition with the establishment of the western supremacy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia under the present leadership managed to come back strongly. Consequently, Russia decisively moved militarily several times during the last decade. Its engagement in Syria, occupation of Crimea and recent invasion of Ukraine are notable here. Moreover, an increased presence of Russia in the Middle East, the rising strengths of non-Western countries including China and the retreat of the United States from the Afghan conflict are some other important reasons.

Of course, a relevant aspect is what other options (instead of economic sanctions and sending military weapons) the Western countries have against Russia, one of the most powerful countries which has thousands of nuclear weapons. Direct military engagement is the only other effective step to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the direct military involvement of the West against Russia in Ukraine can also lead to a nuclear war leading to the devastating third world war probably involving allied countries of each party. Indeed, the United States already mentioned such a possibility of direct engagement. Simultaneously, it is difficult for anyone to observe the Russia-Ukraine war without making any efforts to end it. Severe economic sanctions are probably given aiming to discourage Russia from the ongoing military attack on Ukraine.

Given that Russia has enough nuclear capacity to devastate the entire world including the West and an intention to play more significant roles in world affairs, a relevant question remains on whether it will digest the recent sanctions and their disastrous consequences. Because of potentially heavy economic loss, the possibility of its increased isolation and losing its growing position in the international arena and some other negative consequences, it may not be surprising altogether if powerful Russia uses its nuclear arsenal against non-nuclear European countries as a means of changing the situation, bringing the situation in its favorable terms and securing its desired position in the world, though the usage of mere threats is also not unlikely for bringing the situation under its favorable terms and the possibility of using nuclear weapons against nuclear weapons holding NATO countries is lower because of similar retaliation.

Of course, a relevant question needs to be contrarily raised here: will not any nuclear attack on any non-nuclear European country/countries draw a similar response from the western countries, even if the Western countries have not yet responded with military force to the Russian invasion? Already, the United States repeated that it would get involved if any NATO country is attacked. If Russia attacks any non-nuclear NATO county/countries with nuclear bombs, the direct involvement of the nuclear powers of NATO such as the USA, the UK and France with nukes is not surprising altogether, though the possibility of such an engagement seems to me lower because of possibly devastating consequences for all of them (along with Russia) and depends on direct security threat to nuclear power holding countries. Therefore, the whole world possibly remains at the risk of the third world war, even though such a possibility exists to a lower extent or, at least, unprecedented damages, even if the third world war does not finally result from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Thus, more political/diplomatic efforts are needed to end the Russia-Ukraine war and minimize the chance of a nuclear war. Of course, all reasoned concerns need to be well-addressed and all the parties have some roles to play, as the extent of war depends on what actions are taken by powerful countries including Russia. Desirably, Russia and Ukraine should continue their discussions and reach a non-military solution by keeping Ukraine’s sovereignty intact. Russia needs to understand that the usage of nuclear bombs may not bring its desired outcomes, is undesired and can be disastrous for it too. The Western countries need to understand that confining/isolating a power like Russia in economic and other terms is not pragmatic at all and can be disastrous for them too. Once an acceptable solution is reached, it is desired that imposed sanctions be withdrawn by all parties.

It is undeniable that there are some responsibilities with power. Indeed, there is no global government that can implement international laws the way a government within a country implements laws. Moreover, there is no universal law for governing relations between/among countries in the ultimate sense. Though certain transboundary laws/rights are rendered universal or, more correctly, universality accepted, their denial is not uncommon. Indeed, aggressive interests of nations have dominated in world politics denying relevant laws, treaties, or conventions time and again. Under such contexts, responsible roles of all-powerful countries, at least at an acceptable level, are crucial for making the world a genuinely better place for all, although it is difficult to universally locate an ‘acceptable level’.

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