Tensions have grown over the cutting of the Russian gas supplies through the Ukrainian pipeline. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, Russian gas has stopped flowing to European countries via Ukraine after the latter’s refusal to extend a five-year deal that expired on January 1 — marking the end of a decades-long arrangement for gas supplies — leading to growing tensions as gas supplies reduced in several countries including Slovakia and Austria. Slovakia, the main entry point of Russian gas into Europe, has by this time threatened to cut aid and stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in a reaction to Ukraine’s refusal to renew the transit deal.
It is notable that Russia has transported gas to Europe through Ukraine since 1991. Russian gas was 40 percent in 2021 but it was less than 10 percent of the European Union’s gas imports in 2023. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its gas supplies were disrupted several times driven by geopolitical and other reasons including the use of gas supplies as a strategy. Gazprom cut off most supplies through the Baltic and Belarus-Poland pipelines earlier, two of the four pipeline systems supplying gas to European countries, and the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, leading to cut off gas supplies and the crisis of gas earlier. But reduced gas supplies will impact the European Union’s energy sector amidst the winter, though the impacts may be less and Russia has lost an important market, and may increase the price of gas.
Though the European Union has significantly reduced the import of gas from Russia since its full invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and identified alternative sources of gas supplies (including the United States), a number of eastern EU member states including Slovakia, Austria and Serbia still depend largely on the supplies of Russian gas. Though most European states could cope, several European countries and Moldova, which is not in the European Union but generates much of its electricity at a power station fuelled by Russian gas, are already suffering from gas shortages and will have more impacts. Among others, the looming energy shortage could also increase tension between Moldova and Transnistria, the separatist territory of Moldova, and place strain on resources — further.
Because of the possible impacts and suffering during the winter, gas supplies are vital. But given the extent of the conflict, perceived or real strategic advantage and enmity between Russia and Ukraine, it remains unclear whether there will be any meaningful negotiations on the renewal of the gas transit deal between the two countries. The possibility of negotiations is probably less. At a summit in Brussels last month, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian President, has by this time stated that Kyiv would not allow Moscow to use the transits to earn “additional billions … on our blood, on the lives of our citizens”.
It is desired that the concerns of reduced gas supplies be addressed to avert suffering. Diversifying the sources of gas and the uses of built up reserves can be helpful for different countries including Slovakia. Several countries including Hungary and Serbia can also get the supplies of gas through TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. But negotiations are vital to reduce tensions and may help ensure the supply of gas at least during the winter.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
