The ending of the Ukraine war has become uncertain, leading to concerns. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, the United States is going to shift its Ukraine peace mediation, indicating the possibility of its stopping in the future, and has mostly left the efforts to the warring parties. This decision came after the unwillingness of Russia to reach a proposed ceasefire with Ukraine, making the situation complicated and riskier. Though the US, which signed a Mineral deal with Ukraine, has not yet completely left the promising resolution initiative, its leaving may not be unsurprising — altogether — due to the insistence of the parties and other reasons.
But it remains unclear whether there will be a successful peace resolution by the warring parties alone. It is not that the warring parties alone do not reach the terms and conditions of peace resolution. Notably, Armenia and Azerbaijan drafted and reached peace terms in March 2025 without any mediation that may be signed soon. But reaching peace terms and conditions by the warring parties is often difficult, though their direct talks on the terms are helpful in reaching peace and peace mediation by other parties can sometimes make it difficult to reach acceptable terms, especially when many parties are indirectly but heavily involved. But the insistence on respective positions, along with several other reasons including geopolitical issues, may create trouble.
Pertinently saying, the US peace efforts — initiated in February this year — have led to several talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia, which sparked a reaction from Ukraine and its European allies, and have been going on with the potential of resolving the Ukraine war. Along with the discussions on the potential terms including territories, proposals such as a 30-day ceasefire and partial truces were advanced under the peace initiative. The Trump peace initiative has already made some progress, though the proposed ceasefire has not been agreed. Notably, there is a growing perception among some Ukrainians on making some concessions for peace. But ending mediation will delay ending the war.
Photo credit: https://edition.cnn.com/.
While US mediation efforts have the potential to resolve the war, its withdrawal will lead to the continuation of it without any mediation. Other parties will probably be less acceptable to the warring parties involved and successful in peace mediation. Pertinently saying, several parties including China proposed peace plans and expressed their willingness to mediate earlier but they were rejected by one or all parties involved. Given the extent of geopolitics and parties directly and indirectly involved in the Ukraine war, along with several other causes, the peace mediation efforts of other parties will probably be less acceptable in the future too.
A pertinent aspect is whether the Ukraine war can escalate into a larger war — given no US peace mediation. The possibility is high as various reasons including Russia’s continuation of attacks and Ukraine’s counterattacks and the West’s supplies of weapons to Ukraine and imposition of further sanctions against Russia may deteriorate the situation. Though these causes were present earlier, a higher possibility of the US’s refraining from involving in any such war, if it occurs, because of its emphasis on economic gains, may further increase and quicken it this time.
The war is desired to be resolved. But neither the withdrawal from peace mediation and sanctions nor the insistence of the parties on their respective positions will end the war. Continued peace mediation will help end the Ukraine war. Direct talks between the conflicting parties can be helpful for reaching terms and conditions. But there is no alternative to the intention of all the parties involved including Russia to resolve the war and reach peace.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
