Several ceasefires and peace deals have been reached in the Gaza war, the Iran-US-Israel war and the Israel-Lebanon war, but the wars have not yet ended, leading to concerns. The US and Iran have exchanged fire, including the latest rounds of fire, after the ceasefire reached by the parties, leading to several deaths. Israeli strikes have also been continuing in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon — despite peace deals — leading to hundreds of deaths since the ceasefire. But, more importantly, it remains uncertain how much the ceasefires and peace deals, already reached and will be reached, will ensure their implementation, end strikes and counterstrikes and bring peace.
Various reasons have been playing a vital role in continuing conflicts, despite ceasefire and peace deals, such as the Two-week Ceasefire and 60-day Agreement in the Iran war, November 2023 Truce, January 2025 Ceasefire and October 2025 Peace Agreement in the Gaza war and the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal, that have raised hopes for ending the wars. The conflicts of interest, historical rivalries and the lack of effective implementation mechanisms are vital reasons. Conflicts of interest have not only led to these wars but also delayed reaching peace terms in the wars and broken ceasefires. Moreover, the lack of effective implementation mechanisms in the deals has made these fragile and led to a failure of the efforts in reaching peace so far.
But historical rivalries have probably been playing the pivotal role in violating ceasefires. Pertinently saying, the Middle East geo-economic and geopolitical landscape has been arranged and rearranged anew since the 1948 Arab conflicts and the rivalries among Iran, the US and Israel over the decades, especially since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Due to historical rivalries between Israel and Palestine, Israel has been making attempts to end threats from Palestinians, including Gazans. Moreover, the US and Israel have been considering Iran as a threat that has led to their continued efforts to weaken it to the extent that it poses no more threats, while considering these parties as rivals, Iran has been trying to strengthen itself and reduce threats.
Rivalries have shaped the goals of the parties. Rivalry-based goals have been playing a vital role in undermining ceasefires. For instance, the aim is to ”eliminate enemies,” ”completely defeat enemies,” or ”wipe the enemy out of the map” reflects the long-nourished rivalry-based goals, rather than mere rhetoric, and any intention to end wars. Driven by rivalry-based foreign policy goals, the US and Israel are trying to make as many goal-oriented favorable terms from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas as possible in the deals so that they pose no more threats. Contrarily, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas — which have encountered more losses in the wars — are trying to ensure their goals are reflected in the deals as much as possible.
Geopolitical rivalries are not surprising at all. There are national interests– driven, historical, and other reasons that lead to rivalries and competition among nations. There are rivalries between India and Pakistan, between Russia and the US, between Russia and Europe, and between China and India. Foreign policy goals reflecting rivalries are also not surprising at all. These are crucial for the survival and progress of a country. But these sometimes turn out to be completely unreasoned when one party aims to completely destroy the other. This attitude does not reflect mutually acceptable reasons at all. Existence is not for any single party. Every party has the right to exist and progress.
Mediation efforts need to continue to end renewed US-Iran strikes and Israeli strikes in Gaza and Lebanon. The warring parties need to be brought back to the discussion tables for mutually acceptable solutions. But ensuring effective implementation mechanisms and commitment of the parties is vital. For this, the involvement of multiple parties can be more effective. But the goodwill of the parties is crucial. The parties need to respect the sovereign rights of each other — although there are rivalries and rivalry-based goals.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
