Tensions have increased between the United States and Venezuela, leading to concerns. As per the reports of the BBC and CNN, tensions increased between the United States and Venezuela after the deployment of the US forces in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, tis counter-measures to strengthen the forces by the latter and the US attacks on a Venezuelan drug boat. This led to the deaths of several drug traffickers of Venezuela, the flying of Venezuelan fighter jets over the US warships and the threat from the US to shoot down Venezuelan jets if threatened. But it remains clear whether the situation will worsen between the US and Venezuela in the coming weeks.
A war is less likely between the United States and Venezuela. This is probably because of the lack of interest, economic and other reasons. The two parties have shown no interest in a war. While the US has not indicated for its intention to a war, Venezuela has clearly indicated its unwillingness to it. The developments after the attacks on Venezuelan boats have yet not become so complicated to compel the parties to a war. Costs involved can also hinder it. The US will require to use considerable forces — even if Venezuela does not have the similar military power — to win the war and that requires a huge amount of money. But the new US administration, which has focused more on economic aspects through various measures including the imposition of tariffs against different countries, have other interests and may be unwilling to spend billions of dollars against Venezuela by waging a war.
There are economic relations especially trade and investment between the countries worth more than USD 10 billion that can also work as a hindrance to a war as the war may hinder such businesses. The war can bring less benefits for the parties Including the United States and there are several other reasons including geopolitical reasons for what the war is less likely. Donald Trump, the current US president, is probably less willing to go to war unless it is necessary due to its possible business impacts. The Russia, which has good relations with Venezuela, may work as a hindrance to a war between the two parties for geopolitical reasons, reducing the chance of attacking the Venezuelan territories by the US.
But it may not surprising altogether if tensions increase between the two parties, especially the Maduro government and the United States, even if a war does not happen. The relations between the two countries have been conflicting for decades because of political, geopolitical and other reasons. Venezuela is in favor of Russia in the geopolitical sphere and there are differences in terms of political ideologies between these two countries. While the United States is a democratic country and has a market economy, Venezuela has adopted many of the components of socialism, though it later changed its economic policies much. Moreover, they often engaged in the war of words, especially during the presidency of Hugo Chávez.
But their relations deteriorated in the last few years especially after the 2021 elections and the latest elections — marred by the opposition as manipulated — that resulted in the victory of Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela. But manipulated elections and opposition repression led to the imposition of sanctions by many western countries including the United States over Venezuela. Though the US lifted some sanctions and promised to lift further sanctions, given that elections are free and fair, increasing the possibility of reducing enmity between the countries at least to a certain extent, there relations have not improved much. But drug trafficking from Venezuela to the United States led to the US attacks.
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But the latest complicated developments between these two countries, along with the imposition of new sanctions by the US on Venezuela for anti-democratic actions, have made the situation more complex. The United States declared a reward of 50 million dollars to be given to those who can arrest Nicolas Madorud, the president of Venezuela, where economic problem increased in the last few years. Though this has not resulted in any retaliatory measures by Venezuela against the president of the United States, this can probably lead to troublesome relations further between the parties. More attacks of the US in the coming days on Venezuelan drug boats are not unlikely at all.
But the United States, which has not recognized the re-election of Nicolas Maduro in July 2024, is probably rather concerned of drug trafficking from and wants to exert some sorts of pressure on Venezuela, though its increased military presence in the region has raised the concerns of a possible war and it has refused to talk to the Venezuelan president after he sent a letter to his US counterpart for talks. The military sent near to Venezuela is not large enough to suggest an US invasion of the latter. But further air attacks on drug boats of Venezuela are not unlikely. The US administration has been criticizing the drug cartels of Venezuela since the beginning of the year.
Though it is difficult to mitigate hostilities between the United States and the Maduro government of Venezuela, which is in power for more than a decade since the death of Hugo Chávez and has close relationship with those countries including Russia and China which have geopolitical rivalries with the US, diplomatic measures can help mitigate the growing tensions between the two countries. But direct talks between the parties, though it is probably difficult this time, can help address the causes of the growing tensions including drug trafficking from Venezuela and reduce the chance of a war, which will lead to various impacts including economic — not only in the region but also beyond.
But addressing several crucial challenges including drug trafficking from Venezuela, which is worth billions of US dollars every year, to several western countries, west Africa and other regions including the United States will help reduce the tensions and the chance of war between the two countries. Addressing the US imposition of sanctions against Venezuela in the past can help reduce tensions between the two countries.
