The chance of an all-out war in the Middle East has increased greatly. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, tensions have mounted after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by Israel in Iran. Iran and Hezbollah threatened to attack Israel in retaliation to the killing of the Hamas leader. Though peace steps are going on for the reduction of growing tensions involving Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, it remains unclear whether the tensions can be effectively reduced. Moreover, and importantly, it remains questionable whether the possibility of an all-out war can be canceled out altogether without resolving the Gaza war, the main reason for increased tensions in the region.
It is notable that the Gaza war that has in the meantime killed around 40000 Palestinians — mostly civilians — has increasingly led to tensions between Israel and several other parties including Iran driven by the continued attacks of Israel, geopolitical factors and other reasons. While Yemen has sided with Palestine and attacked goods-carrying ships in the Red Sea, impacting the trade route, Hezbollah has been exchanging fires on the Israel-Lebanon border since the beginning of the Gaza war. Tensions also increased between Israel and Iran, both of which attacked and threaten to attack each other. Previously, in response to the killings of several Iranian commanders by Israel, Iran unprecedentedly carried out hundreds of missile and drone attacks on Israel. Among others, Turkey threatened to attack Israel to protect Palestinians.
Given that the Gaza war, which started with Israel’s Operation Swords of Iron in response to the attack of Hamas on Israel named Operation Al-Aqsa Flood that led to the deaths of more than 1200 Israelis, does not end sooner, attacks, counterattacks and threats and counter threats of an all-out war involving several parties including Israel, Iran and Hezbollah will continue, probably at an increased level, along with rising miscalculations, missteps and major attacks by the parties involved which can ultimately result in a full-scale war sooner or later. Additionally, and importantly, the lack of effective peace steps amidst the growing tensions will only facilitate and increase the chance of an all-out war, leading to devastating outcomes.
It is pertinent to say that wars lead to a solution to many conflicts and grievances. Wars are also given a chance many times to reach a solution. For instance, the Ukraine War is given a chance to decide its fate. Though wars sometimes lead to acceptable solutions, they do not always bring the desirable solutions. Additionally, wars are most often unreasoned or undesirable since they bring disastrous outcomes including the deaths of people, displacement of millions, devastation of properties and interruption in businesses, along with other negative outcomes. Any full-scale war involving Iran and Hezbollah with Israel, more importantly, can also spread to the entire region — probably leading to unimaginable outcomes.
While it is crucial to mitigate the tensions among the parties to reduce the chance of an all-out war, it is vital to find a solution to the Gaza war. Strengthened peace steps can help avert a full-scale war in the entire region involving Iran, Israel and Lebanon. But it is also crucial to resolve the Gaza war sooner. For this, the strengthened peace steps of the United States are crucial, not only for reaching a ceasefire deal between the parties involved but also for ending the war. Restrained steps by the parties are also vital to avert any full-scale war.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
