Presidential elections have led to the win of the Liberal Party’s Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil. Flavio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate, has won the election by a margin (47 percent) over the incumbent president, the Workers’ Party’s Lula da Silva (45 percent), the left-wing candidate. There will be a run-off between the candidates — as they failed to secure an outright majority— but who will win it, which is going to be held on October 25, remains uncertain. No matter who wins the election, there are public expectations from the upcoming government.
There are various concerns in Brazil that need to be addressed. Gang crimes, high government debt, the rising cost of living, growing income inequality, and rising political polarization are some of the main problems Brazil has been facing over the years. Crime and insecurity were top concerns for the voters in the 2026 elections. High-profile gang clashes, illicit economies, and digital scams have risen, though the overall organized crime and homicide rates have significantly fallen over the years due to a variety of reasons, including strict approaches of earlier governments such as the Bolsonaro and the Lula governments and the changing dynamics in crime. But how much the government can address the concerns remains uncertain.
Political polarization has been on a sharp rise over the years in Brazil — a multiparty democracy with competitive elections. The left-wing versus right-wing political split has sharply increased between the supporters of President Lula da Silva and former President Jair Bolsonaro. But this has far-reaching impacts in Brazil, such as institutional instability and political threats, including attacks on the electoral system and the Brasília riots on January 8, 2023, by Bolsonaro supporters demanding election annulments, high levels of distrust in political norms, mutual distrust, partisan stereotyping, and corrupt governance.
Hopefully saying, the presidential candidates have made campaign promises to address many of the concerns. Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to address organized crime and emphasized reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 16 and imposing tougher sentencing rules, while Lula da Silva has emphasized intelligence sharing and greater coordination among federal and state security forces to address organized gang crimes. These will be helpful. However, they have not focused on addressing rising living costs and several other major problems, though they have included some economic measures like continued public investment and limiting government spending in their electoral campaigns.
But there are various challenges that can make it challenging for the government to address the concerns in Brazil. High corruption, organized groups’ relations with political leaders and government officials, and several other challenges can pose hindrances. Corruption and organized criminals’ relations with government officials and their role in local political dynamics have impacted the fight against organized crime over the years. Moreover, the government — no matter who wins — can face significant legislative challenges in taking measures due to its fragmented multi-party system and the mechanics of coalitional presidentialism.
Addressing the concerns is desirable, no matter who wins the run-off. But designating organized gangs as terrorist organizations, as Bolsonaro indicated in his campaigns, will not end organized crime. The government needs to further reduce gang crimes, dismantle organized crime networks, and address illegal gun trafficking — a multi-billion-dollar economy. For this, the strong political goodwill of the government and local political support are important. Addressing systemic corruption, which undermines the fight against organized crime, will be helpful, not only in reducing organized crime but also in addressing many other concerns.
But it is important to address other concerns, including growing economic inequality, rising living costs, and growing political polarization in Brazil. Income gaps are particularly acute along racial and regional lines. But growing political split, if this is not addressed, may contribute further to a sense of illegitimacy that may lead to a compromise in the economic and many other agendas of the government, regardless of who wins the run-off election.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
