The Russia-Ukraine war and the possibility of nuclear attacks

The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for more than six months, Russia has already held a referendum to decide on whether four territories such as Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that are under the control of Russia are willing to be included in Russian territory. Though Ukraine was initially in a troublesome situation, it has already increased its military strength to a notable extent because of the supply of a vast array of weapons from western countries including the United States. Consequently, Ukraine has regained control of territories including Kharkiv, the second largest city of Ukraine. In the meantime, while Russia has threatened to use all available weapons including nuclear bombs given that its territorial integrity is threatened.

No doubt, Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons earlier too, though it later canceled the possibility of its usage especially against Ukraine. But the current threat of the use of nuclear weapons in the war appears to be a serious one. This is because the Russian president himself indicated so in his latest speech to the nation delivered in a serious tone. Moreover, some recent developments, potential effects on Russia of Russia losing the war, geopolitics and some other reasons can lead to the usage of a nuclear bomb by Russia. Ukraine’s augmented strength that already compelled the Russian forces to leave several places has raised the possibility of its regaining some other territories currently held by Russia since its invasion and the possibly complete defeat of Russia in Ukraine, given that the war continues with conventional weapons.

A very pertinent aspect is whether Russia will digest a defeat in Ukraine at a moment when the Russian position in the world is shaking because of not only sanctions by the West but also rising internal problems. No doubt, Russia has counted enormous losses in terms of its economy, though it has been looking forward to making new trade opportunities for months. Moreover, protests have increased in Russia. This is especially the case after the declaration of the mobilization of reservists which is driving many to leave Russia to avoid joining the war in Ukraine. Such a protest probably indicates that Russians are becoming unwilling in increased number to continue the war. Moreover, if Russia losses the war completely, negotiation terms related to the war and sanctions and counter-sanctions may remain unfavorable to it and there remains a possibility of the rise of protests in the country against the regime.

In addition to potential economic and internal political impacts, Russia’s losing the war may have lasting effects in geopolitical terms. The defeat of Russia will directly lead to an increased influence of NATO members especially the United States and decreased influence of Russia and its allied parties in world affairs probably for a long, even if not a uni-polar world order. The United States has already notably regained its geopolitical strength (along with economic ones), which was on the back foot because of Russia’s successful showdown of its military might against the West in the Syrian civil war and some isolationist and controversial decisions of the earlier US administration that made a distance between the United States and the European Union, since the beginning of the war. The defeat of Russia can facilitate the process of firmly re-invigorating the West led by the United States with a higher possibility of Russia’s losing influence in different regions including the Middle East.

Another relevant aspect is whether Russia can win the war with conventional weapons. Of course, it is a matter of analysis of war strategists but such a win seems difficult. Moreover, Russia’s complete defeat with conventional weapons may not be surprising altogether. Indeed, many of Russia’s military hardware that are considered by western military strategists to be unmodernized are lost in the war due to Ukraine’s use of modernized western weapons. More importantly, western countries will not stop supplying weapons to Ukraine because of not only protecting the sovereign country from invasion but also their geopolitical rivalry with Russia and renewed Russia containment policy especially after its invasion. Given Russia’s inadequate supplies of weapons compared to Ukraine’s, upcoming days can be more disastrous for Russia with its conventional weapons in Ukraine.

Given the current developments and possible future consequences of the war, it is, thus, difficult to cancel the chance of Russia’s use of nuclear bombs. But there is no initiative for any negotiation based resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. All the parties seem unwilling to hold talks. Also, there is difficulty in reaching a negotiation based solution immediately, even if all the parties are willing, because of many reasons including differing interests of directly and indirectly engaged parties. Yet, it is desired that the war is ended and there is no use of nuclear weapons. In this respect, all the parties need to be earnest and hold talks, on which Dhaka Opinion Magazine, a global opinion magazine, has been giving emphasis since before the beginning of the war.