The removal of US sanctions on Russia has led to a new turn in the Ukraine war. The US administration has suddenly decided to remove some of the sanctions imposed in response to the war in Ukraine since 2022 and to buy oil from Russia with a Presidential Executive Order a few days ago to address its ongoing energy crisis. But this decision was taken amid the growing tensions between Russia and Europe over the last few months. Though this move has caused immediate criticism, it has some good prospects for the peace process, even if not decisive.
This move, which the Trump Administration says will serve its interests, benefit its economy, and help address its energy crisis, may reduce distrust between the US and Russia and foster peace mediation to end the Ukraine war. Conflicts usually have a higher chance of being ended when the mediating party has good relations with both warring parties than when it completely supports one warring party. The suspension of sanctions — that would consist of a 60-day pause and was decided just before the upcoming US mid-term elections — will probably help keep Russia in the talks and place the US in a somewhat better position in ending the conflict, though it may seem a loss of critical leverage and an advantage for Russia.
Sanctions, continued US support to Ukraine, and rigid positions of the parties have not brought any remarkable outcomes to the peace efforts, even if sanctions have impacted the Russian economy and war efforts. US support has helped Ukraine continue to fight and deter Russia from conquering it decisively. Without US support, Russia could have already taken control of vast Ukrainian territories. The US support has created a sort of balance between the two militarily disproportionate warring parties. But this has also helped continue the war rather than reaching a solution.
But a vital side is whether peace efforts are ongoing, aiming to end the war. Peace efforts are ongoing and, in the last two months, top US diplomats, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, visited both capitals — Moscow and Kyiv — to discuss proposals to end the war. Even if Moscow played down the chance of a deal to end the war, talks with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg and Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo resulted in Moscow’s ”readiness in principle” to resume trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the United States. The latest US unusual move may leverage the ongoing peace talks and increase the chance of ending the war, at least somewhat, though not decisively.
But ongoing peace efforts need to continue to end the Ukraine war, and trilateral talks need to be ensured. Bringing the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine to the discussion table may be more helpful. Their direct talks can help reach a long-term security framework, make a binding commitment, heal daily violence, and increase their focus on ending the war. But the US needs to utilize its waiver of sanctions against Russia and shifting and decreased support to Ukraine to ensure this.
The Ukraine war has been a complicated war from the beginning and has risked a third world war due to various reasons, including the involvement of Cold War rivals, Russia’s intention to secure its past glory, and the West’s efforts to contain Russia further. Under such intense historical rivalries, their frequent tensions over the decades, and proxy wars in several regions, the war has been exceptionally difficult to end so far, though the parties have felt the importance of ending it, and may go on in the unspecified future. Under such circumstances, relaxing sanctions and simultaneously moving forward with peace efforts can be helpful — depending on the US political and diplomatic maneuvering.
But there are post-war security challenges and threats. Tensions have increased between Russia and European nations over the last few months, with several complicated developments, including the EU’s airspace violation by Russia, sabotage in Dutch railways, and an explosive drone incident targeting a cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig-Halle airport, amid Europe’s ongoing support fof Ukraine. Peace efforts need to be able to reduce post-war security threats.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
