The proposal by the President of South Korea for talks is a praiseworthy and promising development in the strained relationship between Seoul and Pyongyang. President Lee Jae Myung offered talks to formally end the conflict, which has been technically ongoing for decades, with North Korea, along with discussing practical ways of halting Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. This is not a surprising move by the South Korean President — who promised to improve the strained relationship between the two parties earlier — but how much the complicated Seoul-Pyongyang relationship will be improved remains uncertain.
Various reasons have been playing a role in the continuation of the conflict between the parties. Deep historical division and rivalries, North Korea’s aggressive military actions, and the heavy military presence of allies, especially the US, in South Korea are some vital reasons for ongoing tensions between the parties. North Korea, which has close ties with Russia and China, frequently tests a range of ballistic and cruise missiles and HIMARS-style rocket launchers and often threatens to attack militarily in South Korea, while there is a large US military presence in South Korea and frequent Washington-Seoul drills. All these rather help continue rivalries and tensions in the Korean Peninsula, though the parties are not in direct military war.
Formally ending conflicts will be beneficial for both parties. This can reduce the chance of a direct war, lessen rivalries, and reduce incidents and tensions on both sides of the 248-kilometer Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Moreover, this can increase economic cooperation and development between the two parties. Although North Korea is militarily much more powerful, it faces various economic challenges and is far less developed compared to South Korea, which depends on its allies for security. Free trade and shared development projects can boost jobs and income on both sides. Furthermore, the sharing of advanced technology can help production, including North Korean agricultural production, and improve other sectors.
Cross-border military provocations, alignment with global powers, and the aggressive rhetoric and continuous ”war of words” among the parties often destabilize the regional situation, with a risk of an accidental war in the region. The formal ending of the Seoul-Pyongyang conflict can improve safety on the Korean Peninsula and may lead to a path toward regional stability. Furthermore, ending conflicts will facilitate people-to-people communication and allow millions of divided family members, who were separated between North and South Korea — due to the 1950–1953 Korean War and the permanent division of the peninsula — to visit and talk freely.
Seoul-Pyongyang talks need to be held with an aim to formally end conflicts. But there are various challenges ahead. North’s intention to acquire military might, the Western threats to it, and the presence of the US military bases in South Korea are less likely to end, at least soon. The US has been against the nuclear development of North Korea, which acquired these weapons and sees them as protection from any aggression. In addition to their past threats and counter-threats, Washington has imposed extensive economic and financial sanctions on Pyongyang, targeting its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, which furthered their rivalries.
But how much the proposed talks, to which North Korea has not yet reacted, can resolve conflicting points between the parties remains challenging, even if they are held. Moreover, the realization of one of the core goals, especially finding “effective ways to halt the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities,” as was said by South Korea’s President, who also last year said he would back a deal between US President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un on freezing nuclear weapons production, is unlikely through talks between Seoul and Pyongyang.
But given the benefits of ending the conflict, the two parties need to hold direct talks — even if the talks do not end it completely. These can help reach a formal peace treaty between Seoul and Pyongyang and address various concerns, depending on their goodwill and commitment. Moreover, talks will help reduce rivalries and tensions between the two Korean countries and can improve cooperation on many grounds, including economic ones.
