The escalation between Iran and Israel has ended due to the ceasefire, leading to a respite. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, the ceasefire was declared on June 24 after around two weeks of the conflict that led to the deaths of several hundreds from Israel and Iran. This is a good initiative of the US administration that de-escalated the conflict after the attacks of US forces on the Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz and Fordow that were later retaliated by Iran with the fire of several missiles into the US airbase in Qatar, increasing the chance of a larger war with the possibility of the third world war. But it remains unclear whether — and how much — there will not be any further conflicts between the parties.
Israel and Iran, along with the United States, have a rivalry because of several reasons. The geopolitical competition and rivalries between the two powers in the Middle East for decades, historical grievances and controversies over the nuclear enrichment program of Iran are crucial causes of escalation. Though the conflicting interest of Israel, which has nuclear weapons though undisclosed, and Iran over the latter’s enrichment of uranium program was directly responsible for the escalation and involvement of the US in it, the long geopolitical between Israel and Iran rivalry is the main reason for the attacks and following escalation between the parties which are claiming victory in the 12-day war. Though these two parties have not fought directly against each other before the latest escalation, they have established their geopolitical set-ups targeting each other for a long.
Positively saying, both parties have accepted the ceasefire declared by the US, which favored the former in the escalation though did not directly attack Iran except for the attacks on nuclear sites on the 10th day of the war, and stopped further fires at each other, despite initial fires of some missiles immediately after the declaration of the ceasefire. The stricter stance of the United States has probably helped refrain from further exchanges of fires between the parties. There is also no indication from any party to escalate further. But the various issues including any wrong initiative by any of the parties including targeted killing may — unsurprisingly — increase tensions between the parties in the future, even if the ceasefire has ended the escalation.
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But it is desired that efforts are made to reduce the chance of further conflicts. Maintaining the ceasefire between the two parties is vital. But reaching a nuclear deal with Iran will be helpful and reduce the chance escalation among the parties including Israel and Iran. Hopefully saying, the United States and Iran are likely to hold meetings in the coming weeks on the possible nuclear treaty, which was reached earlier in 2015 but canceled later in 2018. But ending the targeted killing of Iranians by Israel is also crucial and will help prevent further escalation more effectively.
Withdrawing sanctions imposed by the United States over Iran can be an incentive for Iran and help reach and maintain the nuclear deal — if it is reached by the parties. But it remains unclear whether the chance of further escalation between Israel and Iran in the future will reduce convincingly given that other problems, along with the above-mentioned causes, including the Gaza war, which is still going on and has been killing several dozen of Palestinians each day, does not end.
Pertinently saying, the latest escalation between Israel and Iran has a link with the Gaza war that led to the exchanges of fires between the two parties several times. The continuation of the Gaza war will increase the chance of further escalation in the Middle East especially between Iran and Israel. Along with addressing the escalation between Israel and Iran, initiatives are also needed to end the Gaza war. For this,
