Tensions have increased between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, leading to concerns. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, India and Pakistan have been exchanging fires at the border for a few days following an attack in an Indian village — near the picturesque tourist town of Pahalgam — in the Himalayan region that led to 26 deaths. India suspects Pakistan for the deadly attack, leading to growing tensions between the parties with fires from both parties at the Line of Control. But Pakistan denies its involvement and says it is a game of India. But it remains unclear whether tensions will reduce between the parties without further escalation.
Diverse reasons may lead to further tension and deteriorate the situation between India and Pakistan, which have already fought several wars including the 1965 India-Pakistan War and the 1999 Kargil War. Along with the wars, long rivalry, territorial disputes and the previous attacks of Pakistanis in India have already deteriorated their relations. But several latest developments including the India’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, the Pakistan’s suspension of all bilateral agreements with India and the closure of Pakistani air space to all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines have complicated the situation anew and can cause further tensions. Provided that Pakistan is genuinely responsible for the attacks, there will be further tensions, with a high possibility of conflicts between the parties.
A pertinent aspect is whether there can be another war between the parties, whose relations have become the lowest after the attack. Though the parties seem tough on their positions and there is heated political rhetoric of doing everything a full-scale war between the parties are less likely. Financial costs of wars, the possibility of nuclear escalation and the potential harms to the parties including the loss of lives may put barriers to a full-scale war this time. But — to say the least —tensions will grow further between the two South Asian neighbors, with a possibility of small-scale war or major border skirmishes depending on the involvement of Pakistan in the attack.
Photo credit: https://edition.cnn.com/.
The positive side is that different international actors have urged for calm. While the United Nations have called the parties to remain calm, the United States and China urged to refrain from war. But there are various challenges and concerns. There is a lack of trust between the parties and several domestic and geopolitical causes that may hinder from de-escalating tensions. Both Indian Prime Minister Narendro Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif have warned for doing everything possible. The absence of any meaningful initiative will also increase the chance of small-scale war or major skirmishes at the Line of Control, similar to the 2019 border skirmishes.
Such sort of attacks are undesired. Attackers need to be brought to justice. Positively saying, Indian police have by this time arrested several attackers they suspect to be responsible for carrying out the attack. But it is yet to make any confirmation on the genuine attackers. Investigations need to be carried out fairly so that the genuine culprits behind the heinous attacks are identified and no innocent become the victims. If needed, a third-party investigation can be carried out and may be helpful in identifying the genuine attackers — more acceptably.
But the growing tension need to be reduced before it leads to another war over the attacks in Kashmir, a flashpoint of conflicts for decades. For this, direct talks at the leadership level of India and Pakistan may be helpful. International actors may also play roles in reducing the tensions between India and Pakistan. But initiative of international actors can help prevent the chance of small-scale war between the parties.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
