A revised Iran nuclear deal is probably going to be signed by Iran and 5+ countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China and Germany. Notably, the earlier version of the Iran nuclear deal was also signed by the same parties in 2015. But the former US president withdrew the United States, an important party of the nuclear agreement, leading to Iran’s retaking of the nuclear enrichment program, along with the imposition of new sanctions on Iran by the United States. If the European Union’s submitted revised proposal, which was already agreed upon by the United States, is agreed upon by Iran, it can be, according to available sources, signed by the stated parties soon.
Of course, the nuclear program of Iran has been a concern for many especially Israel and the Western countries including the United States for a long. After years of negotiations, the earlier nuclear deal named as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was reached with an aim to reduce Iran’s nuclear enrichment and keep it up to 3.67 percent in exchange for providing economic opportunities including the withdrawal of sanctions. Though the enactment of the earlier agreement was going on with measures including the reduction of uranium by Iran and its permission to visit its nuclear sites by the international nuclear watchdog named as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a sudden withdrawal of the USA not only stopped its enactment but also intensified disputes and tensions.
Of course, the positive side is that the new proposal, according to available sources, includes more economic opportunities for Iran including lifting sanctions on 17 Iranian banks and 150 economic institutions on the day after signing the agreement and the release of $7bn of Iran’s funds currently seized in South Korea. The European Union’s proposal also includes a fine against the United States given that it leaves the revised treaty. For Iran, the proposal requires that it immediately begins to revise the steps that it undertook to advance its nuclear program and reduce its enrichment. Consequently, the new proposal may not only attract Iran but also discourage the United States to withdraw from it as it did earlier.
But it remains unclear whether the proposal will be agreed upon. Indeed, there are some notable challenges to reaching the agreement. One of the most important challenges is the demand of the IAEA to secure a safeguard inquiry but Iran denies providing such a scope unless the nuclear treaty is restored. Moreover, Iran wants to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the blacklist but the United States, which enlisted it as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization’, is reluctant to do it. Another vital challenge is that Israel, which has geopolitical rivalries with Iran and which staunchly opposes the Iran nuclear deal, along with some right-wing US politicians, has (according to available sources) already warned against lifting sanctions on the IRGC.
Even if the agreement is reached by Iran and other parties, there is, probably, a lack of guarantee that the agreement will be implemented. Indeed, it remains unclear whether the United States, which withdrew from the earlier Iran nuclear treaty, will remain with the treaty especially in the future, though the current US administration seems sincere about the deal. Another important challenge is the relationship between Iran and the United States that was deteriorated further after the killing of Qassem Suleimani, the topmost general of the IRGC, in Bagdad, the capital city of Iraq, by a drone attack. The conflicting relations between the countries may fail to generate cooperation not only from the USA but also from Iran on the terms of the agreement in the future.
Thus, to make sure that the revised Iran nuclear treaty is signed and implemented, all the parties, especially the United States and Iran, need to do a lot. The United States may reconsider the issue of the blacklisting of the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization and needs to look at the treaty without any influence from Israel. Besides, Iran needs to cooperate with the IAEA on the agreed terms to implement the treaty, if signed. Moreover, efforts to mitigate other associated disputes between the country can help to implement the treaty. No doubt, the revised treaty has the chance to help reduce tensions between countries and, hence, benefit both countries in economic and other terms.
