The resumption of strikes between the US and Iran has led to concerns. The parties have resumed strikes after the expiry of the 60-day Peace Deal — which was reached in June, 2026 — and amid the ongoing fragile peace talks. While the US CENTCOM has carried out strikes on Iranian oil tankers and military assets in the Gulf of Oman and close to Kharg Island, the IRGC has attacked US warships and military bases in several Arab countries. But the resumption of strikes has raised doubts about whether the Iran war will end without a larger and longer war.
The resumption of strikes can deteriorate the situation further. It may not be surprising if several Arab Muslim countries join the war, in which the Houthis have already joined, leading to a large-scale war, though they have not indicated it yet. While repeated US attacks will result in Iran’s repeated counter-attacks, the latter’s repeated strikes on the oil, gas, and processing hubs of several Middle East countries that host US bases may generate uncontrolled anger. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, which have close ties with the US, carried out secret attacks in Iran during the war earlier. Though the possibility is still low, it will increase if strikes continue for a long time.
The US once intended to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, missile capabilities, and defense industrial base, alongside a plan to ensure regime change. The US has now shifted away from its original goals and probably returned to rhetoric regarding regime change and destroying nuclear facilities. But the US-Iran war has already turned into a prolonged and intractable conflict rather than the swift victory its planners previously anticipated. Asymmetric warfare, Iran’s regime resilience, underground missile cities, and several other reasons have contributed to it. But it may not be surprising at all if the Iran war takes even longer.
Even if there has been no goal of the parties — including the US — to make the war last much longer, various reasons, including political goals and strategic advantages in the region, may lengthen the war. Strategic advantages in forcing higher and long-term costs for Iran, turning global economic pain into a weapon against the US and Iran’s Gulf neighbors, slowly degrading Iranian missiles and command centers, and ensuring domestic political survival and gains are to be noted here. The US has already said the Iran war will not end before the upcoming midterm elections in the USA in November, indicating a possible delay in reaching peace terms.
There are several other reasons on the ground, including the delay in reaching a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, and conflicts of interest over the terms of the deal, that may increase the chance of a larger and longer war. Despite several rounds of strikes and talks, the parties have so far failed to reach a deal and have remained unwilling to make any concession on core terms, including Iran’s nuclear issues, the US sanctions on Tehran, and service charges on the shipment in the Strait of Hormuz.
But neither the larger war nor the longer war is desirable. This will lead to more deaths and destroy more, along with bringing many other negative impacts. The impacts of the war, especially due to shortages of fuel supplies alone, have already become significant globally, with rising fuel costs, longer transit times for rerouting fuel shipments, and increased living costs. The fuel cost has crossed 100 USD per barrel this week. But immediate and long-term impacts will be unimaginable and difficult for many countries to cope with — if the war becomes larger and longer.
The Iran war needs to be ended. But due to its global impacts, it needs to be resolved earlier rather than putting emphasis on strategic advantages for delaying it. There are various mediation-related challenges, including the difficulty of bringing and keeping the parties in talks. Strengthened mediation efforts can be helpful. But good intentions and political commitments are vital to ending the war earlier.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
