The military coup in Guinea-Bissau has led to concerns. As per the reports of the BBC and CNN, military officials carried out a coup yesterday and an army general was sworn in as Guinea-Bissau’s head of state a day after the bloodless coup. The military coup, which led to the arrests of president Umaro Sissoco Embaló and Interior Minister Botché Candé, took place ahead of the results of the latest presidential elections. Gen Horta N’Tam — former head of the presidential guard — has become the transitional president. But it remains uncertain whether the latest military coup was not plotted by the president to avoid the declaration of the electoral results and how much the possible crisis will be resolved.
The military coup is not absent in Guinea-Bissau. Guinea-Bissau has witnessed a string of coups or attempted coups over the last five decades. But the coup has not always remained peaceful. A military revolt led by General Ansoumane Mané against President Vieira resulted in an 11-month conflict with heavy killings and displacement. Though electoral results directly led to the latest coup, there are various reasons that create the scope of the military coup in Guinea-Bissau. Weak state institutions, political instability, corruption and drug trafficking set the stage for multiple coups. But in the latest coup, the opposition claims that it is plot to avoid the publication of the electoral results which, many believe, has probably favored Fernando Dias, the opposition candidate.
The opposition — more importantly — is probably going to carry out political movements against the coup. The opposition candidate, who is said by domestic and international election observers to be the possible winner and who claimed himself as the legitimate president-elect of Guinea-Bissau and is reported to have gone into hiding, posted a message on social media urging the people to take to the streets, and demand the publication of the election results.
Consequently, political turmoil is not unlikely in Guinea-Bissau, where there are frequent changes in leadership due to coups and other reasons, though it remains uncertain how much political movement can make changes in the transitional government due to arrests and hiding of prominent leaders.
But, moreover, various strategies including the arbitrary arrests and detention may be employed by the transitional authority, self-declared by the military ruler immediatelyafter his swearing-in to be responsible for one year to ensure security and stability, in the days ahead to suppress the possibility of any opposition movement. The military administration has already arrested and detained Domingos Simoes Pereira, the most prominent opposition figure in the country who vociferously supported Fernando Dias, in the wake of the coup. But it remains uncertain how much this tactic will stop movement and lead to political stability in Guinea Bissau in the coming days.
Given that there is no notable irregularities in the elections, the electoral results have not problem at all. The new administration, the transitional authority, which has suspended the electoral process immediately after taking oath, needs to publish the electoral results without any manipulation. This will be a just response not only to the demand of the opposition but also to the eagerness of the people waiting for the official announcement of the winner by the National Electoral Commission. Talks can help address the crisis — instead of the use of force.
But Guinea-Bissau, one of the least developed countries, also needs to reduce the chance of military coups in the future . For this, it is vital to improve institutions and reduce political instability. Addressing other concerns including drug trafficking, which is often believed to be involved with coup can also be helpful. A strong political institution can also help address political instability in Guinea-Bissau.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
