The Myanmar civil war has been going on for years, leading to concerns. Armed conflicts in Myanmar have been going on between the junta government and the rebels, consisting of various ethnic armed groups including the Kachin Independence Army and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), as well as pro-democracy resistance forces such as the People’s Defense Force (PD), in several states including the Shan State, Kachin State and Rakhine State. But there is no visible indication of ending the war, which led to the deaths of several thousand and displaced millions. More importantly, international peace mediation is surprisingly less in Myanmar, despite the importance of ending the conflict.
International peace mediation was mostly made by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus — agreed upon in 2021 — that calls for a cessation of violence and a path toward a peaceful and inclusive political solution is a notable peace mediation to end the war, caused by historical, ethnic and political factors. But it did not result in successful outcomes, despite its chance of ending the conflict. China has actively engaged in peace mediation and brokered multiple temporary ceasefire agreements such as the ceasefires in late 2023 and early 2025. Along with the reasons within Myanmar including the junta’s resistance to engagement, there is a lack of interest among outside mediators, leading to less external peace mediation.
But the conflict, which has increased in the last several years, is less likely to end without external mediation. The conflicting parties have not made any significant attempts to mitigate conflicts. Internal divisions, entrenched positions including the military junta’s goal of maintaining power, and a lack of trust from all parties make domestic dialogue virtually impossible. Both the military junta and the diverse resistance forces believe they can achieve a decisive victory and are currently unwilling to engage in meaningful negotiations that would lead to a peaceful political solution. While the rebel groups held several territories from the Junta government last year, the latter is retaking territories from the former this year.
Several other reasons including the fragmented nature of the conflict, the deeply entrenched role and nature of the Myanmar military, the lack of a unified political vision among resistance armed groups, and significant external influences have been playing a crucial role and may make it difficult to seek a solution to the conflict through domestic means. Various external actors including China have their own economic and other interests in Myanmar and provide support to the warring parties, facilitating the continuation of conflicts rather than holding talks for a solution. External support lessened the incentives of the parties including the military to engage in genuine dialogue and reach peace.
Given that the chance of resolving the armed conflict in Myanmar especially through domestic means is low, peace mediation by external parties needs to be strengthened. But regional organizations and countries have probably a greater chance of successful peace mediation to the conflict compared to global organizations and western countries including the United States. Among the parties, Russia, which has been providing extensive military support to the Junta government, China, which has good relations with both the junta government and the rebels (though varyingly), and ASEAN can play a major role — even if they have failed so far to end the conflict.
The role of China may be more effective compared to Russia, which does not have good relations with the rebels. But China’s earlier failure is not only because of its lack of emphasis on mitigating conflicts in Myanmar but also its limited capacity to mediate peace, especially in achieving long-term, sustainable resolutions to complex international conflicts, though it proved success in making a deal between Saudi- Arabia and Iran in 2023 that restored their diplomatic relations and normalizing relations between Syria especially the then president Bashar al-Assad and Middle East countries. Yet the goodwill of China can help end the conflict.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
