The resolution of the Ukraine war has remained afar, despite the ongoing peace process. As per the reports of the BBC and CNN, the peace talks between the United States, the main supporter of Ukraine in the war, and Russia have been canceled, leading to uncertainty over the peace process. Moreover, the US led peace process has yet to lead to the direct talks between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine and the involvement of Europe, which has been providing military support and finances from the very beginning of the war. But it remains whether the war in Europe can be resolved without the involvement of Europe in the ongoing peace process.
Peace mediation between the directly warring parties mostly leads to the resolution. Many wars including the 1965 Indo-Pak war and the recent Gaza war were resolved through mediation between the warring parties by other parties, though there are exceptions too. But the Ukraine war is not a mere war between the two parties, it is much more. While Cold War parties are involved in the war in almost all the ways, there is a significance of it in the entire Europe, now and in the future. The outcome of the war directly impacts European security and stability. Even if European countries are not involved in the ongoing peace process, which is probably less likely, the representation of their reasoned concerns including post-war security concerns in the peace agreement is vital.
But, more importantly, the involvement of European countries is needed in the post-war situation, to say the least. Without their involvement, the sustenance of peace is difficult in Ukraine. Given the geopolitical complexity between Russia and the West, Ukraine’s strategic position and several other reasons, future attacks from Russia over Ukraine are not unlikely at all, even if a resolution is reached through the ongoing peace process. But the involvement of European countries can help address various concerns including the post-war security concerns and the sovereignty of Ukraine. A lasting peace agreement will need credible security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression in Ukraine. The involvement of Europe is also needed for the post-war rebuilding of Ukraine.
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But a vital aspect is whether a peace agreement is possible on the Ukraine war, which has been going on for more than three years. Despite some progress, especially from almost no scope of talks to the talks on possible peace terms, the situation has probably become somewhat problematic in recent weeks due to several complicated developments, along with increased bombings. The cancellation of the peace talks between Russia and the United States, supposed to be held in Hungary, the rejection of the US peace plan and the imposition of sanctions are notable. There is also yet to be a strong desire for ending the war from the warring parties including Russia, though the parties have expressed their intention several times.
Even if some of the latest measures by the parties are tactical, in the end talks are vital to end the war. The continuation of the US-led peace process and talks between the US and Russia have good prospects and will help reach peace. But the direct talks between Russia and Ukraine are also needed. The willingness among leaders is vital to end the war. But the parties, both directly and indirectly involved parties, need to reconsider their strict positions in the peace resolution. Otherwise, a resolution is probably difficult.
But while the sovereignty of Ukraine can be threatened by Russia in the future too, its too dependence on European countries for a long time will somehow threaten its sovereignty, especially in terms of its sovereign decision making. Consequently, Ukraine needs to develop its capacity to reflect its political maneuver especially in maintaining its good relationships with allies and hard-time friends including European countries and reduce its hostility with Russia.
