The airspace violation by Russia over three European and NATO countries has led to tensions. As per the reports of the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, the incursion of Russia into the airspace of Romania, Poland and Estonia, three European countries, has taken place with fighter jets and drones. Without permission, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered the airspace of Estonia and remained there for 12 minutes but Russia denied violating the Estonian airspace. Though these have not led to any damages, they happened at a time when the Ukraine Peace Process is going on. But it remains unclear whether there will be an escalation between Russia and NATO countries.
The violation of airspace over each other by Russia and NATO, the parties which have been in the Cold War for decades especially after the Second World War and whose enmity has significantly increased since the formation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact because of geopolitical rivalry, political differences and other reasons, is rare. But — furthermore —the relations between NATO countries and Russia have been deteriorating again since the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and have turned to be the lowest after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and there were increased events of cyber attacks and sabotage and some other complicated developments especially after the start of the Ukraine war. The latest airspace violation can probably be due to several reasons including the intention of Russia to weaken the support of European countries to Ukraine and ensure peace terms favorable to Russia in the ongoing peace process.
After the violation of airspace, tensions have already increased between Russia and NATO countries, which had reduced remarkably after the end of the Cold War, and there is a possibility of further increase. Estonia has consulted with NATO about the matter as per Article 4 of the military alliance of 32 countries including the United States and the United Kingdom. Many member states of NATO including the United States, Poland, the Czech Republic, Italy and Estonia reacted strongly to the airspace violation. While the US indicated it could be big trouble, Czech President Petr Pavel said that NATO should respond to such provocations by shooting down planes. Further violation of airspace and retaliatory shooting down of drones or jets, if both occur, can escalate tensions further.
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But it remains unclear whether there will be a larger war between Russia and NATO countries, even if tensions grow further. Though many analysts of international affairs have already been calling the Ukraine invasion and other complicated developments between Russia and Europe as a war in the entire Europe, a larger direct military confrontation between the parties has not yet actually started and the possibility of it is probably low now for the lack of interests in larger war. But the continuation of the Ukraine war can lead to other possible complicated developments in the future between Russia and Europe and will probably increase the chance of a larger war — at least between Russia and European countries.
A larger war will be devastating, no matter whether it is between Russia and Europe and/or between Russia and NATO, and is not desirable. But measures are needed to reduce the chance of further complicated developments and the chance of a larger war. Talks based solution to security concerns is always desirable. But the emphasis also needs to be given to the resolution of the Ukraine war. In the Ukraine peace process, direct talks between Russia and Europe, along with Russia and Ukraine, may be helpful and address the security concerns of Europe.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
