Armed conflicts in Somalia are a concern. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, many armed attacks have been carried out by several rebel groups including Al-Shabaab, which has been waging an insurgency for almost two decades, leading to thousands of deaths and displacements in Somalia. To end the conflict, former Somali President Hassan Sheikh declared total war against al-Shabaab after the group staged a deadly hotel siege in Mogadishu in 2022 that killed at least 21 people and wounded more than 100. Though this step initially raised hope for the ending of conflicts in Somalia, it remains unclear whether and how much this will end conflicts and help bring peace.
The total war step, which aims at uprooting al-Shabaab from Somalia, has helped reduce conflicts between the government and the group in Somalia, which has been in armed conflicts for several decades with the ousting of Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 that sparked a civil war and the rise of al-Shabaab. The offensive of the total war policy, along with providing support to local clans — rebelling against al-Shabaab — in the first phase helped expel the group from the areas of central Somalia it had controlled for over a decade, the government in regaining several territories and reduce its attacks, along with deteriorating its popularity in these areas. Later Somalia’s launch of its total war campaign in the second phase focusing on uprooting the group from its southern strongholds brought some successful outcomes, but this phase has mostly failed so far.
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Pertinently saying, concerns remain about the ability of Somalia to maintain its territorial gains as it intends to push into southern Somalia, al-Shabaab’s traditional strongholds. Moreover, the total war policy has not stopped the armed group’s attacks because of several reasons including its capacity and various flaws in the government’s steps. There are unhindered arms supplies to the stated armed group, which has an affiliation with al-Qaeda, through a variety of sources including illicit trafficking networks. Moreover, and importantly, the government’s total war policy mostly relies on military operations against the armed group, though this policy offers amnesty for al-Shabaab fighters. Consequently, there is an absence of meaningful peace initiatives with al-Shabaab.
But, moreover, it remains unclear whether focusing on al-Shabaab alone will desirably end armed conflicts in Somalia. Pertinently saying, there are various armed groups, in addition to al-Shabaab, such as the Islamic Courts Union loyalists, Ras Kamboni Brigades and Muaskar Anole, some of which are aligned with al-Shabaab and have been fighting in Somalia for decades and causing instability. Additionally, there are some other groups and clan militias that operate in different regions of Somalia, often with varying degrees of political and military influence. These groups have carried out many attacks that killed many in different areas of Somalia — though they are not as powerful as al-Shabaab.
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Addressing challenges to mitigating armed conflicts and bringing peace to Somalia are vital. While the government needs to address its weak capacity to fight against armed groups including al-Shabaab, there is a need for a comprehensive approach to security and peace in Somalia. Emphasis on peace efforts, along with fighting against the group, will immensely help mitigate conflicts. Positively saying, Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, declared the Federal Government of Somalia’s willingness to initiate peace talks with al-Shabaab, a stark contrast to the stance of President Hassan Sheikh, who preferred negotiations once al-Shabaab is significantly weakened. But this has not advanced.
Efforts need to be made to bring these two parties to discussion tables to end conflicts. But Somalia also needs to end conflicts with not only al-Shabaab but also other armed groups for lasting peace. For this, peace steps are vital with other armed groups, along with al-Shabaab, with a long-term plan. The role of transnational actors including the African Union and neighboring countries is also vital in peace talks and reaching peace in Somalia.
