The political crisis is going on in Serbia. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, tens of thousands of people carried out anti-government rallies in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, against the Vucic government. The new wave of student-led protest rallies against the government is going on with the demand for early elections and end to President Aleksandar Vucic’s rule, leading to increased political tensions, which started with the anti-corruption protest after the Novi Sad railway bridge collapse that led to the resignation of former prime minister Milos Vucevic. But it remains unclear whether there will be elections, which are supposed to be held in 2027, earlier amidst the protests.
The possibility of an early election in Serbia depends on various reasons. The intensity of protests, the capacity of protesters to compel the government and the repression of the government on protesters — along with the resistance of the government — are vital reasons. Pertinently saying, while the strength of the anti-governmental segment has been increasing day by day against the Vucic government, the protests, which were initially led by University students, have been increasing in the last several months. Many in Serbia are increasingly becoming angry and frustrated at the government for various reasons including corruption in government institutions. Tens of thousands of protesters including students participated in the anti-government protests in March this year and in the renewed protests last month.
But the government’s capacity to deal with the protests may play a vital role. The Vucic government has thus far remained strict in dealing with anti-government protests, despite significant threats, and made many arrests and did not accept most demands earlier. There is also no indication from the government to accept the electoral demand of pro-Western protesters. The government of the Serbian Progressive Party has called the demand for re-election absurd and pro-Russian President Vucic, accused protesters of planning to spur violence on orders from abroad, indicating the low possibility of accepting it, unless compelled. Consequently, it is difficult to precisely say at this moment whether the government will hold an early election or fall due to protests.
Photo credit: https://edition.cnn.com/.
But, no matter the elections are held earlier or the government falls, there will be further political turmoil with increased protests and other political activities in Serbia in the coming weeks. Various reasons may play roles. Along with the growing demand for early an election, there are several other concerns including mal-governance, weak democratic institutions and limited media freedom that not only led to mounting protests earlier but also will motivate further political protests against the Vucic government. Amongst the others, geopolitical components such as pro-Russia and pro-West components may play some roles and foster the deterioration of the political situation further.
But the extent political crisis in Serbia is probably difficult to be resolved especially through political talks due to various causes including the intensity of the conflict of interests and the lack of trust between the government of the Serbian Progressive Party, which is in power for twelve years, and the protesters who see elections as a step in removing the president. Among others, the government may take further coercive means to prevent protesters that can include more arbitrary arrests and detention. But talks may provide a scope for resolving the crisis — at least somewhat.
But, no matter whether there is an early election and whether the Vucic government falls, there are various reasonable concerns that are vital to be addressed. Serbia needs to address its growing corruption and improve media freedom. Amongst the others, Serbia also needs to improve its political institutions. But protesters have the right to carry out protests. Consequently, peaceful protests need to be allowed.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
