Attacks and counter-attacks between Israel and Iran have led to concern. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, Israel carried out overnight air attacks in several cities of Iran including Tehran, Shiraz and Tabriz targeting several sites including nuclear sites that killed more than 70 including top-ranked military commanders and nuclear scientists on Friday. Iran later responded with counterattacks with missiles and drones in Tel Aviv and other areas of Israel including Jerusalem, leading to several deaths. But there is yet to make any remarkable initiative to de-escalate the conflict between the parties and it remains unclear whether there will be the end of the current escalation soon.
Escalations are not at all new between the two parties. They have exchanged several rounds of fire since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023. But the ongoing escalation, the most significant fighting between the countries in decades, stems from Israel’s intention to end Iran’s nuclear programs, leading to the unilateral attacks on the latter. Attacks and counter-attacks will probably continue in the days ahead between Israel and Iran — two powerful countries in the region that have been in geopolitical rivalry for several decades especially since the fall of the Shah regime in 1979 — due to various reasons including Israel’s desire for ending Iran’s nuclear programs and the death of top Iran’s commanders amidst the lack of peace initiatives.
But, hopefully saying, no party has yet indicated for or seems to get engaged in a full-scale war. Amongst others, world leaders and Arab leaders have called for immediate de-escalation between the two countries and the UN is going to hold an emergency session amidst the ongoing escalation, in which several rounds of strikes and counter-strikes have already been carried out by the parties. Consequently, the chance of de-escalation remains. But it remains unclear whether their calls and concerns will be heeded by the parties at all especially Israel, which has been repeatedly avoiding international calls and showing its reluctance to end the Gaza war and continuing attacks in Gaza for months.
Photo credit: https://edition.cnn.com/.
There are various challenges that can hinder de-escalation between the parties. But among the challenges, the differing intentions of the parties over the nuclear issue will play a vital role. Pertinently saying, Israel has been against the development of nuclear weapons of Iran for a long and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told several times to make every effort to end its nuclear enrichment programs. Other reasons including the Israel-favoring stance of the United States will also play a role and make it at least somewhat difficult to de-escalate — meaningfully. Consequently, escalations are likely to continue in the coming days.
Though it may be difficult to de-escalate, peace efforts are immediately needed to do so. Otherwise, the conflict will lead to severe consequences not only for the two parties but also beyond. If the ongoing conflict takes time to de-escalate, it may escalate in the region. At least, there is a possibility of a full-scale war between the two parties and the full-scale involvement of Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanese Hezbollah and armed groups in Iraq in the conflict is highly likely, though the involvement of other Arab countries is less unlikely for their divisive stance.
Since the mere calls of international actors will probably not work in de-escalating the conflict between Israel and Iran, efforts are vital on the ground. But the role of the US is crucial. Even if the parties de-escalate now, there is no guarantee that there will not be further attacks and counterattacks. Unless several issues including the targeted killings of military commanders and scientists are ended, the chance of a full-scale war will remain.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
