Armed conflicts in Somalia are a concern. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, many armed attacks have been carried out by several rebel groups including Al-Shabab, which has been waging an insurgency for almost two decades, leading to thousands of deaths and displacements in Somalia. To end the conflict, Somali President Hassan Sheikh declared total war against al-Shabab after the group staged a deadly hotel siege in Mogadishu in 2022 that killed at least 21 people and wounded more than 100. Though this has step initially raised hope for the ending of conflicts in Somalia, it remains unclear whether and how much this can end conflicts and help bring peace.
The total war step, which aims at uprooting al-Shabab from Somalia, has helped reduce conflicts between the government and the group in Somalia, which has been in armed conflicts for several decades with the ousting of Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 that sparked a civil war and the rise of al-Shabab. The offensive of the total war policy, along with providing support to local clans — rebelling against al-Shabaab — at the first phase helped expel al-Shabaab from areas it had controlled for over a decade, the government in regaining several territories and reduce attacks of the group, along with deteriorating its popularity in these areas in recent years. Later Somali’s launch of its total war campaign at the second phase focusing on uprooting the group from its southern strongholds brought some successful outcomes, but this phase has mostly failed so far.
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Pertinently saying, concerns remain about the ability of Somalia to maintain its territorial gains as it intends to push into southern Somalia, al-Shabaab’s traditional strongholds. Moreover, the total war policy has not stopped the armed group’s attacks because of several reasons including its capacity and various flaws in the government’s steps. There are continued arms supplies to the stated armed group, which has affiliation with al-Qaeda, through a variety of sources including illicit trafficking networks. Moreover, and importantly, the government’s total war policy mostly relies on military actions against the armed group, though this policy offers amnesty for al-Shabaab fighters. Consequently, there is an absence of meaningful peace initiatives with this group.
But, moreover, it remains unclear whether focusing on al-Shabab alone will desirably end armed conflicts in Somalia. Pertinently saying, there are various armed groups, in addition to al-Shabab, such as the Islamic Courts Union loyalists, Ras Kamboni Brigades and Muaskar Anole, some of which are aligned with al-Shabab and which have been fighting in Somalia for decades and causing instability. Additionally, there are other groups including clan militias that operate in different regions of Somalia, often with varying degrees of political and military influence. These groups have carried out many attacks that killed many in different areas of Somalia — though they are not as powerful as al-Shabab.
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Addressing challenges to mitigating armed conflicts and bringing peace in Somalia are vital. While the government needs to address its weak capacity to fight against armed groups including al-Shabab, there is a need for a comprehensive approach to security and peace in Somalia. Emphasis on peace efforts, along with fighting against the group, will immensely help mitigate conflicts. Positively saying, Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, declared the Federal Government of Somalia’s willingness to initiate peace talks with al-Shabab, a stark contrast to the stance of President Hassan Sheikh, who preferred negotiations once Al-Shabab is significantly weakened. But this has not advanced.
Efforts need to be made to bring the parties to discussion tables to end conflicts. Somalia also needs to end conflicts with not only Al-Shabab but also other armed groups. Peace steps with other armed groups, along with al-Shabab, with a long-term plan will be helpful in ending conflicts and bringing peace. The role of transnational actors including the African Union and neighboring countries is also vital in peace talks and reaching peace in Somalia.
