Regime change in Syria can lead to changes on many grounds. According to multiple sources including the British Broadcasting Corporation and Cable News Network, the Syrian regime change occurred, due to an astonishing offensive of twelve days that toppled Bashar al-Assad, earlier this month. The transitional government has the opportunity to make Syria, which is badly affected economically politically and in other terms and has been suffering from humanitarian crisis for a decade long civil war, more peaceful, inclusive, democratic and prosperous for all by addressing economic, political and other challenges and concerns. But it remains unclear whether there will be peace and whether it will be easier for Syria to move forward by addressing challenges and concerns.
It is notable that there are economic, peace-oriented and other challenges and concerns in the days ahead. Addressing economic concerns and improving fragile economic conditions — including reviving disrupted economies, addressing economic downturn and providing economic opportunities — that fueled the fall of Bashar al-Assad, bringing stability and peace and de-weaponizing various regions of regional and global supply chains are crucial challenges. Additionally, ensuring inclusive governance, addressing the refuge crisis and addressing the dictatorial concerns of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS, which were visible and sparked protest earlier this year, in Idlib, a city in northwestern Syria, during their rule, are also vital challenges to Syria. Among others, addressing corruption in government institutions and ensuring a transition political government will remain challenging.
Given that there are several positive aspects, such as the interest of many countries to work with the transitional government and the support from other then opposition parties and groups, a diverse range of political and ideological groups backed by regional powers, it will be helpful to have economic sanctions imposed during Assad regime withdrawn, bring various economic resources to revive its economy and address many ethnicity based challenges. Among others, the moderate appearance of the HTS, which has actively tried to rebrand itself as a nationalist force and distant from its past extremist position in recent years, despite its origins in al-Qaeda, may help address extremism and make Syria more democratic.
But it will be challenging to address various internal and external challenges, despite support. It will probably be more difficult to address the challenges put by Bashar al-Assad and his loyalist forces. Forces loyalists to the former president carried out an attack by this time, leading to several deaths. Among others, it can be difficult to address geopolitical challenges. Notably, other countries or parties, allied to Bashar al-Assad, including, but not limited to, Iran-supported militias, may help destabilize Syria through a variety of means including by promoting subversive acts and providing support to ambush-like attacks in the future — making it difficult establish peace and many other concerns.
Syria needs to address various challenges and concerns. Political prudence and effective plans may help address various challenges including economic and geopolitical challenges. Effective diplomatic efforts may help withdraw economic sanctions imposed during the Assad regime. But avoiding the Idlib-style dictatorial ruling of the HTS will be helpful. Holding dialogues with different parties including other opposition parties may be helpful. The cooperative role of international actors, instead of military attacks on various targets, can help not only address various challenges but also reduce the chance of its fallibility into extremism.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
