Tensions have increased among Ethiopia, Egypt and Somalia, leading to concerns. According to multiple sources including the BBC and Star Tribune, the latest rounds of tensions increased because of Ethiopia’s agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland — unrecognized by Somalia — over the access to a Somaliland Red Sea naval port in January this year and a military agreement between Egypt and Somalia in August that forges closer military ties between the countries. While Somalia describes the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland as ”Aggressive”, Ethiopia warns against any invasion (by indirectly indicating the agreement between Egypt and Somalia, increasing the possibility of further tensions involving Ethiopia, Egypt and Somalia.
It is notable that tensions have in the meantime mounted between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s biggest hydroelectric dam project undertaken in 2011 which has the potential for a large-scale war involving several countries including Ethiopia and Egypt, and its potential impacts on the downstream countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Additionally, Somalia and Ethiopia, which fought a full-fledged war during 1977-78 over the control of the Ogaden region, has conflicting relations and territorial disputes for decades, though a peace treaty signed in 1988 ended the confrontation between the countries. Ethiopia and Somalia row over the Ethiopia-Somaliland pact and Ethiopia and Egypt row over Somalia may rather increase tensions in the region, even if armed conflicts are less likely at this moment.
There are military force-based, rhetorical and other developments involving the three countries that can complicate the situation further. As part of the military deal between Cairo — angered over the Nile Dam — and Mogadishu, the former has already sent 1000 troops to the latter and will send more troops, along with armored vehicles, rocket launchers, artillery, anti-tank missiles, radars and drones. While the Somali Federal government wants Addis Ababa to annul its seaport agreement with the de facto independent breakaway Somaliland region or withdraw its military forces from Somalia deployed earlier to fighting against Al-Shabab, Ethiopia describes Red Sea access as an existential issue and “natural right” and warns that it would fight if it can not secure it through peaceful means.
Addressing concerns and reducing tensions involving Ethiopia, Egypt and Somalia are crucial. For this, peace efforts are vital. The mediation of the African Union, Turkey, which has recently improved ties with Egypt, has a security pact with Somalia and is providing drones to Ethiopia, or other third parties may be helpful. The good intentions of the parties are crucial in taking other’s reasoned interests into consideration and averting any military escalation. But without addressing disputes over the Nile Dam, the motivational reasons for Egypt to send its military to the border of Ethiopia, it may be difficult to successfully reduce tensions and address the wider geopolitical crisis in the region involving several countries including Ethiopia, Egypt and Somalia.
It is pertinent to say that peace efforts have been made to resolve the disputes over the Nile Dam. Several parties including the African Union, the United States and the United Arab Emirates mediated peace talks several times that resulted in several positive outcomes including the Declaration of Principles on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in 2015 which was signed by Ethiopia and downstream parties such as Egypt and Sudan, which heavily depend on Nile water as the freshwater source, and a preliminary Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam agreement in 2020 — helping reduce tensions at least somewhat. But there are flaws in the steps of mitigating the dam disputes.
While the reasoned concerns of downstream parties such as Egypt and Sudan have not been properly addressed in the peace efforts, there is a lack of binding agreement. Among others, there are geopolitical challenges and a lack of trust among the parties. Consequently, addressing disputes over the Nile Dam is vital. A binding agreement on equitable water sharing may be helpful in reducing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, ultimately reducing the geopolitical crisis in the region.
