Tensions have increased between Israel and Iran — two powerful and crucial geopolitical actors in the Middle East — leading to growing concerns. Tensions escalated amidst the Gaza war, which has been going on for around six months. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, tensions increased after the Israeli strikes on an Iranian consulate building in Syria last week that killed seven officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals and six Syrians. While Iran has vowed to take revenge against the latest attack, Israel has said it will respond if it is attacked, raising the possibility of a direct war between the countries.
It is notable that both the country has rivalry for decades driven by historical, geoeconomic and geopolitical causes. The targets of Iran have been attacked for years by Israel, which has increased attacks in Syria since the beginning of the Gaza war. But the recent most attack, the biggest of its kind on Iranian targets since the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, was carried out at a time when tensions in the Middle East have already grown driven by several factors including attacks and counterattacks between Hezbollah and Israel and the Red Sea confrontations involving the Houthi, backed by Iran, and several other parties including the United States. The possibility of a war between the countries is probably a bit high this time.
This is because of several causes including growing geopolitical rivalry and rising security threats. Iran, which considers the latest Israeli attack an attack on its sovereignty, will probably respond despite its unwillingness to enter war with Israel to protect its interests in the Middle East. Given that any direct attacks on the soil of Israel may lead to the counterattacks of the latter on Iranian soil with a possibility of a full-scale direct war between the country and the involvement of other parties including the United States, Iran may instead attack the targets of Israel and the USA, the supporter of Israel, outside Israel but in the Middle East, leading to further escalation and raising the possibility of a direct war.
But any direct Israel-Iran war will probably lead to a larger war in the region and devastating outcomes. While any such war will drastically increase the price of oil and disrupt international trade in the entire region, it will kill hundreds of thousands and lead to the displacement of millions of people, affecting the entire region, which has already been facing disastrous consequences driven by the Gaza war, and the whole world. It is definitely desired that steps be taken to mitigate tensions between the countries and reduce the chance of any larger war in the region. But it is crucial to end preemptive and reactionary attacks and counterattacks by the parties.
Given the lack of trust and extent of enmity between the parties, ending attacks and counterattacks is difficult—definitely. International steps including the steps of the European Union are vital and may be helpful. The good intentions of the parties are crucial to de-escalate tensions. But the Gaza war, which itself has increased tensions and can increase the chance of attacks and counterattacks between the parties, needs to be ended to reduce the chance of any direct war between Israel and Iran and a larger escalation in the entire region.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
