The killing of three soldiers of the United States has increased tensions in the Middle East. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, three US soldiers were killed by a drone attack on a US military base — Tower 22 — near Jordan’s border with Syria by the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, leading to tensions between the US and Iran. The US president said the United States would respond to the attack, the first time strike that has killed US troops in the region since Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel. Amidst the escalation of the Gaza war, the latest development with the killing of US servicemen has raised new concerns.
But the chance of large-scale/direct military confrontations between the US and Iran is probably low this time. Notably, the US bases were attacked many times in different countries of the region including Iraq. The attack on Tower 22 is different driven by several factors including the pressure on the US president by the US lawmakers to cut out the middlemen and bomb Iran directly, the extent of the regional escalation of the Gaza war and the extent of the US involvement. But several other factors including the China-focused policy of the US, its ongoing costly support to the Ukraine war and less potential benefits and high costs may deter any large-scale war with Iran ahead of the 2024 US Presidential Election.
But the situation in the Middle East is already tense driven by the Gaza war and attacks and counterattacks in several areas of the region including Iraq, the Red Sea and Yemen, along with the threat of an Israeli-Hezbollah war. Several commercial ships have in the meantime been attacked in the Red Sea by the Houthis, which has been in civil war in Yemen for more than a decade. The US and coalition troops — stationed in the Red Sea — have carried out several strikes against the Houthi targets after the Houthis began attacking commercial ships in support of Hamas in the Gaza war. But the latest event may increase the chance of further escalation with small-scale retaliatory attacks.
It may also not be surprising altogether if the present sporadic attacks and counterattacks lead to a full-scale war between Houthis and its supported parties especially Iran and the United States, with or without its coalition, in the coming days. Notably, attacks and counterattacks have been on the rise without any convincing hope of de-escalation in the region since the beginning of Houthi’s attacks in the Red Sea. Given that the Gaza war does not end soon, the chance of further attacks on the US military bases in the region and commercial ships in the Red Sea and counterattacks on Yemen may rise in the coming days.
But it is desired that any larger escalation of the Gaza war in the region be avoided. Any full-fledged war involving Iran and the United States will lead to innumerable deaths and the displacement of millions and trigger a spike in oil prices and global inflation — along with bringing other impacts. For this, it is crucial to give a rethought on attacks and counterattacks. But the emphasis also needs to be given to ending the Gaza war which itself will end the current escalation, though reducing rivalry between Iran and the US requires further efforts, especially improved relations between the countries.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
