The China-Taiwan tension has grown notably in recent months. While military drills were carried out by China near Taiwan and live missiles were fired over Taiwan by China in response to the visit of the US House Speaker, the United States is repeatedly in the position that it will do whatever is needed and stand in favor of Taiwan. Moreover, China has repeatedly warned that it would use its military force to bring Taiwan under its full control, though Taiwan considers it a self-governed country. Consequently, the tension between powerful China and Taiwan, along with its allies including the United States, has led to a growing concern, although it remains unclear whether there will be any military war.
Definitely, the possibility of the use of military force against Taiwan by China remains, although it is not yet very high. China’s ambitious foreign policy — along with several other factors/causes including its rising economic and military power and the US’s increased Asia focused foreign policy — may increase the possibility of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan for making it a part of China with force. The Ukraine war may be rendered by China a more appropriate time for its invasion of Taiwan since the West that is involved in the Ukraine war may face trouble in getting involved in the China-Taiwan war similarly. The West has sent weapons to Ukraine and spent money equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars for the Ukraine war.
An important point is whether the war can escalate between the United States and China, given that the latter gets engaged in a military war against Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province, sooner or later. Though the United States has repeatedly made it clear that it will do whatever is needed for protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression, the possibility of its direct military confrontations with China is low. The continuation of another proxy war may cost high for Western countries at this moment. Even if the United States does directly not get involved in the war, it can provide military weapons to Taiwan as it did to Ukraine. But the involvement of the United States is not unlikely altogether.
But it remains unclear whether the European Union will get involved in the China-Taiwan war in terms of sending military weapons as it did to Ukraine if any China-Taiwan war occurs at all. The European Union has not made such an intention yet. Notably, the EU, which has a large economic relationship with China, has never strongly protested against Chinese military drills near Taiwan. During the escalation between China and the United States over the visit of the US House Speaker, the European Union did not strongly react to China’s excessive reaction. But given that the US is the closest ally of the EU, its joining the war between China and the US — not between China and Taiwan — may not be surprising altogether.
It is pertinently notable that China’s use of military force may force the United States to supply military weapons to Taiwan to fight China, even if it does not directly gets engaged in a military confrontation with China over Taiwan. The United States may also use many of the tactics used against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine including the imposition of sanctions and counter-sanctions. The potential reactions of the United States, along with the European Union, to China may act as deterrents to China’s use of military force against Taiwan since the latter may not take such a risk at this moment. Also, there are several other deterrents to the Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Also, there are several deterrents to the US’s joining the China-Taiwan war. A huge amount of money for engaging in the war, along with its potential loss of military equipment deployed in the region including in Japan and South Korea, may deter the United States from its direct engagement with the war against China over Taiwan. But the most important deterrent may be the risk of a possible nuclear war if the United States directly involves in a military war against China. It remains unclear whether the United States, which has not yet directly engaged in the war against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, will take such a risk against China.
The possibility of a war between China and Taiwan is not high at present, though its possibility remains at least somewhat. But the possibility of China’s military invasion is high in the future, though the tentative time remains unclear. It depends on the Taiwanese declaration of independence. Given that Taiwan declares full independence now, a Chinese military invasion is highly likely now. Even if Taiwan does not declare its full independence now, China — driven by its geopolitical ambition, a growing presence of the US near its border and several other factors — may still militarily intervene in Taiwan within the next few years. Consequently, a large-scale war is not unlikely over Taiwan, although the direct involvement of the US is less probable.
The impacts of the war will be enormous on the warring parties and others. The economic and other impacts of any military war between China and Taiwan will be definitely huge in the region and beyond, even if it does not directly occur between the United States and China. Probably, a war could devastate the Taiwanese economy—especially in the vital semiconductor industry. It may lead to a huge economic loss for China, given that sanctions are imposed on China by the US and the EU. If any direct military war occurs between China and the United States, a situation which is not altogether unsurprising, the impacts of the war will be enormously devastating for the entire world.
Any military war between China and Taiwan is definitely not desired at all. Military war is also not desirable between China and the United States over Taiwan at all. Since the possibility of a military war cannot be discarded altogether, efforts are needed to ensure that military war does not occur over Taiwan. But it is imperative for all the parties to be earnest in averting any direct military confrontation over Taiwan and create a scope of talks to resolve disputes and reduce the chance of military war. Also, other parties especially the European Union may help reduce the chance of a military war over Taiwan and its possible escalation involving other countries including the United States.
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