Without any indication of the ending of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for one year since the beginning of Russia’s Special Operation in Ukraine, it is going to be more complex and more devastating with a higher possibility of nuclear attacks by Russia. Definitely, the possibility of Russia’s nuclear attacks has increased several times, though the possibility of talks-based solution has also increased several times driven by the intention of the parties — directly and indirectly involved in the war — including Russia, the United States and Ukraine. But the renewed threats of nuclear attacks by Russia in response to the supplies of sophisticated weapons and the west’s determination of defeating Russia seem more convincing this time.
Russia’s use of nuclear weapons can mainly be driven by its potential harm in economic conditions, geopolitical status and other aspects if the war continues the way it is going on. For the latest supplies of sophisticated western weapons including tanks and, possibly, fighter jets to Ukraine for fighting the Russian forces, which gained little in the last few months of the war despite continued bombardments across Ukraine aiming at discouraging it from continuing its fight, Russia may face more loss in the coming days/months in military means. Given that Russia and the west have a geo-political rivalry for decades and there are possible serious national and transnational impacts of its defeat, Russia will not probably accept its defeat in the Ukraine war.
It is pertinently notable that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has renewed its promise to defeat Russia and free all of its territories from the Russian occupation with all-out support from the member states of the North American Treaty Organization including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and France, which stood in favor of Ukraine immediately after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, possibly leading to a further escalation in the coming days/months. Russian President Vladimir Putin and former President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev have — on the contrary — made it clear that Russia’s defeat, which Russia perceives can shrink its global and regional power, along with a possibility of serious impacts on its integrity, is not an option.
But the use of nuclear weapons is not desirable because of their devastating impacts not only in Ukraine but also in other countries. Further deterioration of the situation of the war is also not desired. But given that efforts are not taken to halt the further escalation of the crisis and resolve it earlier, the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons will significantly increase in the coming days or months, leading to nuclear attacks. Definitely, non-military efforts are needed to be emphatically taken sooner to end the war, lest it becomes out of control completely. All the parties are also desired to be earnest to end the war and reach acceptable resolutions to the crisis.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
