The armed violence in South Sudan has increased in recent months. According to several sources including the BBC, violence occurred several times in the last few months. The recent violence in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state —amid an escalation in clashes between armed groups since August last year —has killed hundreds of civilians, displaced more than 20,000 and led to the destruction of properties and livelihoods. The conflict started in December 2013 as a political dispute within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Army and reflects a power struggle between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. The violence is widespread, reaching almost every state. In the conflict, civilians are targeted on the basis of ethnicity, perceived political allegiance and killed.
Notably, the dynamics of conflicts is complex in South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011 after over 20 years of civil war. While the conflict is originally between the government forces loyal to President Kiir and rebels loyal to former Vice President Machar, there are armed conflict and localized violence within rebel factions in several parts of Unity, Upper Nile and Central Equatoria. According to the UN, around four hundred thousand people were killed and four million were internally displaced and fled to other countries including Sudan during the conflict. Armed conflict, localized violence, flooding, food insecurity and economic destabilization have also left 6.8 million in humanitarian crisis. Though the light of resolution appears again and again, it is yet to be resolved.
Definitely, several efforts were taken to end the years-long civil war. Most importantly, the mounting international pressure on the South Sudanese government and repeated negotiations led to the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement — signed by the government, Machar’s opposition party and several other rebel factions and brokered by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development — that includes a nation-wide ceasefire, the formation of a unity government drawn from several belligerent forces, a transition period of three years which will be followed by a general election and the withdrawal of troops from urban areas and other places including villages, schools and churches. Despite its potential, the peace agreement, which also included the reinstatement of Machar as a vice president, has failed to resolve the conflict.
But its implementation has been slow. Moreover, the agreement does not adequately deal with the reasons which caused the collapse of the previous agreement, especially the 2015 peace agreement. The creation of positions for four vice-presidents, the extension of the presidential term by three more years and the resumption of oil exploration remain contentious. Notably, the election was due in 2015 but it is yet to be held in the country. The electoral delay consequently caused opposition to the new agreement. The agreement also facilitated the sharing of government positions among the Nuer and Dinkas, two dominant tribes, at the expense of smaller tribes leading to the violation of the ceasefire in Koch County in the Northern part of South Sudan.
Several other challenges can hinder the South Sudan peace process. A lack of strong political will that repeatedly hindered peace efforts remains a crucial challenge. Definitely, competition for political power — and differing ideologies — among local leaders can also put significant hindrances to lasting peace in the war-torn country. Also, localized disputes over grazing areas, water, cultivation grounds and other resources that lead violence to rife in parts of South Sudan put significant barriers to complete peace. But the positive sides are that the warring parties are not disinterested in peace, regional peace efforts are ongoing and global powers including the United States have an interest in ensuring a lasting settlement to the years-long conflict in South Sudan.
Global and regional efforts need to be continued. Flaws in the 2018 peace deal and other challenges need to be addressed to end the South Sudanese conflict. In this respect, negotiations on contentious aspects may be helpful. But a ceasefire needs to be maintained. Definitely, a strong will from the parties is important. International pressure may not only generate a strong political will from the conflicting parties but also compel them to come to the discussion table and reach and implement acceptable comprehensive peace. The role of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in the peace process is imperative. Also, efforts are needed to prevent destabilizing regional spillover of the South Sudanese conflict.
