Protests have been going on in Iran against the custodial death of Mahsa Amini for more than three months. According to available sources, the current movement, rendered the biggest one after the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ousted the Shah Regime, has already led to the death of more than five hundred protesters, along with several law enforcement officials, the execution of several protesters and significant economic loss. But neither the movement is curbed down nor are the demands of protesters realized. Moreover, how long the protest will continue and how many executions will be there to control the protest remain unclear. According to available sources, more than one hundred protesters are in the pipeline of execution in Iran.
The Iranian protest movement has led to complicated developments keeping the possibility of both regime change and a failed movement. Protesters’ demands have changed with the unfolding of the protest. The protesters initially demanded the cancelation of the mandatory hijab, which is in place for decades. Economic discontent caused by the rising inflation, inadequate income opportunities and other causes was added later, though the complete resignation of the Islamic government or regime change has now become the main demand. Despite the government mentioned that it would cancel the morality police, which arrested and killed the Iranian Kurdistan woman in custody that caused the ongoing protest, there is neither any indication of pulling back from the movement from protesters nor any government’s response to protesters’ demands for regime change.
Instead of accepting the demands, the government has taken strict measures to control the movement from the very beginning especially in areas where ethnic minorities live such as Kurdistan and Balochistan. But the government strengthened its controlling measures gradually. Law enforcement officials opened fire on protesters leading to many deaths. The use of indiscriminate arrest as a tactic has, according to the US-based Iran Human Rights Activists News Agency, led to 18000 arrests. Troops, heavy weaponry and military vehicles were deployed to quell protestors in the Kurdish region. In addition to the crackdown on protesters, the government increased strict measures against celebrities and others who support the movement. But, more importantly, the government started to execute protesters with the intention to discourage them and curb the movement.
Several protesters were already executed and many are probably going to be executed soon. This tactic has raised concerns globally, especially for the violation of the rights of protesters that are guaranteed in many international documents. But, importantly, it remains unclear whether executions will end the protest movement or cool down the situation as is probably believed by the Iranian government. This is difficult to be sure of. People from many quarters are increasingly supporting the protest within and outside Iran. While Iranian celebrities and other quarters joined the protest movement in Iran, many expatriate Iranians in several European and other countries have demonstrated against the regime making the current protest unique. These are indicative of the possibility of continued protest against the government.
The killings, arrests and executions of protesters are, thus, less likely to solve the months-long crisis. Of course, the acceptance of the protesters’ demands may be one of the ways to solve the Iranian crisis. But the government appears to be less likely to accept the demand for its resignation. At least, the government’s acceptance of some concerns may also help to end the crisis, though it remains unclear whether the protesters will pull back without the realization of their demand for regime change. Yet, the government’s discussions with protesters, who are protesting for their rights and the injustice imposed upon them by the Iranian governments for years, may be helpful to reach acceptable solutions, though the success of discussions remains unclear too.
But the execution of protesters is desired to be ended. Also, law enforcement officials need to use non-lethal means of controlling demonstrations and avoid open fires on protest rallies and the killing of protesters. It is further desirable that the underlying causes of the resentment of protesters and their widespread participation in the movement are addressed. An important underlying cause that is not given the deserving focus is the economic conditions. Undeniably, Iran’s economic problems are a significant backdrop that, for years, built up social anger and resentment. Though the current movement is not directly related to economic problems, the latter encouraged and fueled the protest movement.
