Russia has been attacking critical infrastructures including power grids in Ukraine for several weeks. The bombings have increased after Ukraine’s attacks on the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea with the mainland which is used by Russia to supply military logistics to several areas of Ukraine for its Special Operation. By this time, more than one-third of the power grids of Ukraine have been destroyed by Russia’s targeted bombings on critical infrastructures. The targeted bombings, moreover, are going on just prior to the winter season when the continuous supply of electricity is more important than any other season. Moreover, it remains unclear whether there will be an end to the bombings on Ukraine’s critical infrastructures in the coming days.
No doubt, the attacks on critical infrastructures, infrastructures on which society depends on in daily life, are a war strategy and sometimes effective in the war. Attacks against hospitals, oil pipelines, food supply chains, dams and other critical infrastructures are seen in wars and civil wars. Such attacks are carried out mainly to weaken enemies by disrupting supplies and putting a hindrance to the advancement of enemy fighters. Bombings are also employed to cause significant harm to enemy countries. The attacks on critical infrastructures are sometimes seen just before the end of the war and carried out to create fear among the population of the enemy country. Bombings on critical infrastructures are also used as a tactic to generate an anti-government sentiment from the population of enemy countries.
But two very pertinent aspects are whether Russia will be benefitted from such a tactic and how much Russia will be benefited. No doubt, such attacks already generated advantages in military means for Russia over Ukraine by creating a few troubles for Ukraine. Notably, the Kremlin increased its attack on the power system when Ukrainian forces started to advance with a successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv and the South. Such bombings disrupted the counter-offense of Ukraine by creating logistics problems. Ukraine had to pull air defense systems from the front lines to protect its power infrastructure in the greater area. Also, such targeted attacks may lead to devastating economic consequences for Ukraine. Ukraine had to suspend electricity exports to neighboring European states for an indefinite period.
No doubt, such attacks, if continued, may give Russia more advantages over Ukraine in military means in the coming days. But it remains unclear how much Russia will be benefitted from attacking critical infrastructures especially in terms of compelling Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms including the acceptance of four annexed territories as Russia’s territories. Notably, Ukraine has neither stopped the war nor expressed its intention to accept Russia’s terms. Rather Ukraine advanced to Kherson and held back a few other territories from Russia’s occupation in the last few weeks. Since Ukraine receives weapons and financial and other support from the West, the Russia-Ukraine war is, moreover, less likely to be ended without any such intention of the West.
Moreover, and importantly, the main victims of the attacks on critical infrastructures are often civilians, even if the war and enemy fighters are affected. According to available sources, hundreds of people have been killed in the mounting attacks on critical infrastructures in Syria, Yemen and other warring countries. Along with deaths, many were deprived of health care, remained out of power and faced stock-outs (due to the disruption of the supply chain) and many other problems. In the ongoing war in Ukraine, mostly civilians are the victims of such attacks, though the counter-offense of Ukrainian forces is affected. Millions of civilians remain out of power in many cities of Ukraine and civilians will be more affected in the coming winter if such attacks continue.
Because of the advantages in the war, Russia may not end bombings on the critical infrastructures of Ukraine. But it is desired that critical infrastructures remain outside the target of attacks. No doubt, Russia’s responsible roles are needed in the Russia-Ukraine war. This is the case at least for a few critical infrastructures including power systems and internet access that can help to avert possible sufferings in the winter. It is also pertinent to note that measures are needed to end the war and resolve other developments of the war including sanctions and counter-sanctions. In this respect, talks are important among the parties including the West. It is also desired that all the parties are earnest.
